The market suddenly entered a cold mode after the Bitcoin halving, catching many people off guard. This round of market conditions started with a rebound in the fourth quarter of last year and then continued with a bull market in the first quarter of this year. The hyped things were basically tracks without any new ideas.
Apart from the Bitcoin track, there is no innovation at all. Retail investors are tired of the highly valued VC disk, which leads to the prevalence of meme. After a short period of prosperity, it is difficult to maintain the market trend for a long time without innovative gameplay. Therefore, we have seen that the whole month of May will enter a period of continuous adjustment. Everyone should be fully prepared.
Disk information sorting
1. 73777→56553 is the first stage of adjustment, and the target level is the rise from 15476→73777
2. 56553 → Now, it is the second stage of adjustment, and the target level is the retracement from 73777 to 56553
3. This adjustment has lasted for 61 days
analyze
1. Under the condition of extremely tight liquidity at the weekend, the market effectively broke through the previous low of 60630, but did not break through the integer mark of 60000.
2. Similarly, the highest point of the small-level rebound was 61888, and it failed to break through the Fibonacci 0.5 position of this small-level decline, and there was no sign of strengthening.
3. At present, two attempts to break through the small-level Fibonacci 0.5 position have failed, and the bear flag pattern has emerged, which is bearish, but the level is too small and the stability is not high.
4. At present, both large and small levels are in a state of buying and selling balance, which needs to be broken by inducements
News
1) The important data this week is the CPI data (expected to be 3.4%) released on May 15 (Wednesday 20:30). If it is higher than expected, it will be bearish, and if it is lower than expected, it will be bullish!
2) Israel and Palestine hold talks to reconsider ceasefire strategy!
3) More than 6 Federal Reserve officials will speak this week, with the focus on Powell’s speech on Tuesday!
Is this round of market adjustment over?
Let me first say the conclusion. It is estimated that it has not yet bottomed out. Two days ago, BTC returned to above 65,000 and stood back on MA20, but it didn’t stabilize and went down again.
Many people have begun to say that 5.6w is already the bottom of this round of correction, but there is still an obvious signal that it is still in a downward channel. The last time BTC pulled up above 6.5w, it did not break through the previous high of more than 6.7w and then fell again.
The signal that an upward trend is opened is that each rise breaks through the previous high. The signal of a downward trend is that each rise cannot break through the previous high, and the low point is setting a new low. Therefore, pay attention to whether it falls below 5.6w.
It is estimated that this round of psychological price is between 52,000 and 55,000!
Why were previous bull markets so strong, while current bull markets are generally sluggish?
First, the crypto market was relatively small in the past, and investors were relatively concentrated in choosing cryptocurrencies. Therefore, once a certain cryptocurrency was popular in the market, its price would rise rapidly.
The current crypto market has become very large, with various currencies emerging one after another, and the choices of leeks are more diverse, which has also led to the dispersion of market funds, making it difficult to form a large-scale rising market.
Secondly, the market capitalization of currencies in the past was relatively low, so a small amount of funds could bring about a large increase. Now, the market capitalization of many mainstream currencies is already very large, and more funds are needed to push their prices up.
In addition, there were relatively few bull market tracks in the past, so it was easier for investors to reach a consensus and push the market up. Now, there are various sectors and concepts in the crypto, which makes it easier for investors to be distracted and difficult to form a joint force.
Furthermore, the number of players in the market is not increasing enough, and there are countless people who have quit the circle. In addition, many people do not understand BTC and blockchain, which also limits the market's room for growth.
Finally, current project owners tend to focus more on short-term interests and lack long-term vision and pattern, which also affects the healthy development of the market.
Looking back at these reasons, it is not difficult to find that the current crypto market has undergone tremendous changes. I hope that the leeks can remain rational, invest prudently, and become a qualified crypto person!
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