Before starting the article, let’s talk about what everyone is most concerned about: when will the results of the ETH ETF be announced, and will it be approved?
1. When will the ETH spot ETF be announced?
Generally speaking, it will be between 2:00 and 4:00 a.m. on May 24th, Beijing time, but it is possible that it will be slightly delayed to 6:00 a.m.
2. Where can I view the information published by ETH spot ETF?
The SEC’s official website is: https://sec.gov
3. Will the ETH spot ETF definitely pass?
Not necessarily. Nothing is 100% certain. At present, the possibility of passing 19b-4 is very high. I personally think it is more than 80%, or even higher. However, as long as there is no final conclusion, the probability of passing is only 50%.
4. If the ETH spot ETF is approved, what impact will it have on the market?
There will definitely be more positive impacts, especially after the ETH spot ETF is approved, which means that there is no so-called POS Token that cannot pass the approval of the spot ETF. In fact, it has nothing to do with POS itself, but the approval of ETH will give the market more ideas and will definitely inject more funds. For ETH itself, you can refer to the trend of BTC, and there will not be a big difference.
5. If the ETH spot ETF is approved, will it extend the bull market?
Essentially, it will only prolong the bull market of ETH itself. This is the same as BTC. Other tokens still need to follow the big cycle of liquidity.
Thinking and operation strategies for the current market
The big green candle of BTC and ETH brought sunshine to the market, and also gave me hope after a long wait.
Although I also hope that the main uptrend of BTC will come. However, at this position, BTC may have two trends
The first is to start the main uptrend again. This means that the big bull market of BTC has officially arrived. After the main uptrend of BTC, it will usher in the climax of copycats. In terms of time, it is half a year earlier than the last bull market.
The second scenario is that BTC will fluctuate for a long time at the 70,000 to 80,000 level. The trend can be seen from June to July 2023.
Analyzing from various factors
The probability of the first and second scenarios is similar, so I won’t go into details here. Historically, after a period of market indifference, a wave of market movements will be triggered when BTC strengthens (including a strong rebound). It has been more than two months since BTC adjusted from its highs, but the adjustments of the altcoins have generally fallen by more than 60% from their peaks.
Therefore, even if the second trend is adopted, the market will trigger a very good market trend, which is worth participating in. The most popular ETF recently is ETH. Some news from the SEC has greatly increased the market's probability of passing the ETF, triggering a surge in ETH. Most people could not keep up with the previous pace. Therefore, the key is how ETH will go next?
If ETH passes as expected , we can refer to BTC for the subsequent trend. After BTC's ETF passed, the market adjusted 20% due to the favorable landing, and then started a wave of main rising waves . The reason for the main rising wave was the buying of US stock funds. However, the difference is that before BTC passed, the market had a unanimous agreement, and the increase before passing was relatively large, so there was an adjustment for favorable landing.
ETH was not so consistent in the market before, and it did not cause a big rise . In addition, BTC has a historical experience of subsequent rise. So this time ETH is likely to have a small drop in the market , but many will continue to rise. For BTC, the biggest signal is a strong breakthrough of the previous high of 73,000. But this is not so important, because as long as BTC stabilizes, it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t rise.
But what is certain is that the previous 60,000 should be basically confirmed as the bottom of this stage. It has been supported for several times. You can be careful. The market should not be worse than the previous period. However, the conditions for a violent bull market are not yet met, and new highs should not be reached yet. Just wait patiently.
The market has been quite divided these past two days. Some people have already cashed in their profits, while others still want to take a gamble (what do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section)
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