After the U.S. non-farm payrolls data was released last Friday, which far exceeded expectations, Bitcoin fell from nearly $72,000 to as low as $68,400, with the largest drop of more than 5% during the period.
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate around US$69,300. However, it rose to US$70,000 between 11 o'clock yesterday and 2 o'clock today, but failed to sustain a breakthrough. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin fell back to $69,400, down slightly by 0.02% in the past 24 hours.
STH has achieved a price of nearly $64,000
Bitcoin's sideways fluctuations seem to have a "support" force at work. Observing the chips on the chain, the Realized Price (RP) of short-term holders (STH) continues to rise. The current STH Realized Price has risen to nearly $64,000, up 1.5% in the past week, indicating an increase in short-term speculative activities.
STH Realized Price is the cost line of the average change of hands on the chain for short-term holders (users who have held the currency for less than 155 days, the deadline is 155 days, which is exactly around the time when the US Bitcoin spot ETF was approved in January). It is an indicator that analyzes the current main support of chips. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin remains above $64,000 in the coming months, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin price will remain bullish as this price serves as important support.
On-chain data analyst Murphy also recently wrote :
Judging from past data, as long as there is no black swan event, it is difficult for the price of BTC to be significantly lower than STH-RP during the bull market. Being close to or slightly lower than this position will trigger a large amount of demand. Therefore, STH-RP is a stronger support.
The chips changed hands from 60,000-64,000 mg to 66,000-68,000 mg.
Murphy further pointed out based on URPD data that the main change in the on-chain structure in the past 20 days is that a large number of chips in the range of 60,000-64,000 US dollars have been transferred to the range of 66,000-68,000 US dollars, forming an accumulation of nearly 1.55 million BTC. This forms a thicker "moat" on top of STH-RP.
Murphy concluded: " I think based on the current data, this lower limit (should refer to STH-RP) will not be easily broken unless sudden external events severely impact emotions."
annotation:
- The full name of URPD is UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which is the realized price distribution of UTXO . It can clearly reflect the price range corresponding to the last movement of BTC in circulation. Simply put, it is the price distribution of chips on the BTC chain.
- It is a favorable indicator to analyze the current main cost, support or pressure level of chips to judge the current market sentiment. Interested readers can read the introduction here in detail.
