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Manta has hit a new low in the past two days, but don’t panic, I’m here to give you a boost and recharge your faith!
Yesterday, the SEC chairman said that the Ethereum spot ETF S-1 document is expected to be passed by the end of summer. According to this time estimate, it is expected to be around August, which means there are more than two months left.
Apart from Ethereum, the biggest beneficiaries of the Ethereum ETF are the smaller L2s, such as OP, ARB, Manta, and Strk.
There is no need to say much about OP and ARB, they are old friends that everyone is familiar with, but due to ETH's poor performance this time and the large amount of unlocking of their chips, the prices of OP and ARB have been sluggish.
When I was analyzing the correlation of chips, I found that they had one thing in common, that is, there would be a round of price increases in the first six months before a large number of chips were unlocked, and after the chips were unlocked, prices would fall all the way.
About 5-6 months before the unlocking, OP started to rise 270% from the bottom, began to fluctuate at a high level, and then fell and weakened.
Looking at ARB again, the waterfall unlocked on March 16, 24, bottomed out about 5-6 months ago, and rose by more than 200% in the following months.
Then let's deduce Manta in this way.
First of all, Manta's chip layout is very different from OP and ARB. There is almost no waterfall unlocking, and the unlocking of chips is very gradual. Only around January 20, 25, will new chips be released. But from now on,
By the time new chips are unlocked, the chip growth rate will only be around 20%.
The OP waterfall unlocked about 134% of the circulating chips on that day.
ARB waterfall unlocked about 73% of the circulating chips on that day
Therefore, from the perspective of chips, Manta's gentle unlocking should have more advantages.
If we start calculating from the expected time of the Ethereum spot ETF passing, it will be about 5-6 months until the new chips are unlocked, which is very similar to OP ARB.
Some people say that the rise of OP ARB coincided with the surge of BTC, and this condition is difficult to replicate. My answer is that Manta can ride on the train of Ethereum ETF listing this time.
If you think that the listing of Ethereum ETF will not cause the price of Ethereum to rise, then just ignore what I said. If you agree with me that the listing of Ethereum spot ETF will bring about a round of upward trend, then I believe that Ethereum will definitely follow the trend.
I don’t know if this is the bottom right now, but the market usually hypes expectations first. When we expect the Ethereum ETF to be passed in August, funds may start to be deployed one month in advance, and prices will start to rise before it is passed. So from now to the next month, I think it is a good position for left-side deployment.
Why among so many L2s, I choose Manta, because it has a small market value, great potential , and a soft chip layout. At the same time, it is essentially different from other L2s. It can be said that although it belongs to the same L2, it is not in the same track. It has a strong correlation with market hotspots such as CeDeFi and RWA. Therefore, where the market value ceiling is, it cannot be valued by traditional L2, and there is enough room for imagination!
Failure caused by insufficient cognition comes from information gaps, which is essentially due to disconnection between circles.
It is important to embrace a professional circle, which will help you take off and turn around quickly.
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