The performance of the cryptocurrency market continues to be weak, which has also reduced the activity of the ecological network. According to data from "THE BLOCK", after the Bitcoin halving in mid-April, Bitcoin miners' income per TH/s (7-day MA) has hit a record low in the past two months; the upward trend in June has once again been suppressed. Break and continue downward.
According to Glassnode data, the BTC balance in the wallets of Bitcoin miners has continued to decrease by 30,000 since October 2023, and the current total is approximately 1.8 million.
It is speculated that the reason is that on the one hand, after the Bitcoin halving, the operating costs of mining companies have increased, and they need to sell Bitcoins to obtain working capital or purchase new equipment to improve their mining capabilities; on the other hand, smaller mining companies may It has become unsustainable, so we can only sell Bitcoin to take profits and close the mining business.
In addition, Coinglass data also shows that Bitcoin's 30-day average volatility has dropped to 1.25%, setting a record low in 2024.
Ethereum gas fees hit four-year low
On the other hand, Ethereum gas fees also fell below 3 gwei over the weekend, hitting the lowest level since 2020. In addition to the decrease in ecological activity, after the Dencun upgrade in mid-March brought "blobs" to Ethereum and reduced the cost of transactions on the layer 2 network, the median price of gas fees has steadily declined.
Lower gas fees also caused Ethereum’s burn rate to drop to a 12-month low. According to Ultrasound.money data, due to the low burn rate, Ethereum currently has slight inflation, with the average supply growth rate in the past 7 days being 0.56% / year. (But in the longer term, it is still deflation, and more time needs to be observed)
The options market says there will be a turnaround in the second half of this year?
When will the sluggish market turn around? Digital asset trading company QCP Capital also issued an article over the weekend to share its views. QCP Capital said that in terms of the options market, they observed a large amount of selling of call options expiring within one month, but a large amount of buying of call options from September to December.
This shows that the market expects little price movement in the short term, but there may be potential for significant gains before the end of the year. In other words, markets are set to consolidate over the summer, with the potential for a breakout during the U.S. election.
On the other hand, in anticipation of the imminent launch of an ETH spot ETF, ETH's implied volatility is at a premium of 18% to BTC, indicating that investors have stronger bullish sentiment towards ETH.
According to data from the options trading platform Deribit, a Bitcoin call option that expires on September 27 with a strike price of $90,000, and a Bitcoin call option that expires on December 27 with a strike price of $75,000 are traded The top two Bitcoin call options by volume show that the market has high expectations for Bitcoin prices to hit new highs in the fourth quarter of this year.
