In the past two months, despite the constant hot topics of memes and the top project Airdrop, the market has been in a rather paradoxical downturn - the roar of bears can be vaguely heard, the steps of bulls are vague, and the market has collapsed. and restarting seemed to only take a moment.
This article aims to unearth and sort out some fermenting events hidden in the market in the past two months, and at the same time look forward to the positive factors that may be ignored in the future, and look forward to the main plot that may stir up trouble in the first half of the year.
BTC spot ETF inflows turn from negative to positive
The market always likes to overestimate the short-term effects of new things and underestimate their long-term impact. For the Bitcoin spot ETF, which has been launched for nearly half a year, there is a recent signal that deserves attention:
According to SoSoValue data, the Bitcoin spot ETF has shown a new wave of capital inflows since mid-May, which lasted for nearly a month. On June 4, it reached the second-highest value in history of US$886 million (second only to 1.05 billion on March 12).
Although there has been a continuous decline since last week, the overall situation has been significantly reversed compared to April and May.
As of June 21, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was US$55.55 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value to the total market value of Bitcoin) reached 4.39%, and the cumulative historical net inflow reached US$14.56 billion.
Crypto regulatory wheel turns & Ethereum spot ETF suddenly accelerates
The wind starts at the end of Qingping. In the context of the 2024 election year, the macroeconomic environment has improved significantly recently, both at the regulatory level and at the financial level, brewing a new round of bullish catalysts (recommended reading " Trump vs. Biden Competition" "Winning over Bitcoin", is the U.S. crypto regulation about to turn? 》).
First, on May 22, the Financial Innovation and Technology Act for the 21st Century (FIT21 Act) was passed by the House of Representatives with an overwhelming vote of 279 to 136, and was then officially approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 24. Form 19b-4 for 8 Ethereum spot ETFs.
This means that the stance of U.S. regulators has shifted from tough to softening, especially since the Ethereum ETF’s expectations have been greatly advanced through the node, and it seems to be just a step away from the final launch. Interestingly, although the attitude of U.S. regulators has changed this time Both the speed of response and the speed of response far exceeded expectations, but looking back afterwards, it seems that there are still no traces to be found:
At least as early as around US$3,000, whale such as Justin Sun began to accumulate ETH chips and firmly went long on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. This seems to indicate that individuals/institutions with a keen sense of smell are already making early arrangements.
Most directly, ETH's performance in the secondary market also swept away the previous decline and began to gradually strengthen. The most obvious is the change in the exchange rate of ETH/BTC. You must know that since October last year, ETH has continued to fall compared to BTC, and the exchange rate ratio of ETH/BTC has dropped from above 0.064 to below 0.045.
Since mid-May, the exchange rate ratio of ETH/BTC has begun to go out of a downward trend. In the past month, it has successively exceeded the 0.05 and 0.055 mark, reaching the highest recent high of 0.058. The overall trend is relatively strong.
Traditional Web2 players accelerate the layout of Web3
On June 6, Robinhood officially announced that it would acquire the crypto trading platform Bitstamp for US$200 million to expand its suite outside the United States. The two parties have reached an acquisition agreement, but it is subject to regulatory approval - compared to the 2018 Korean company NXC The acquisition price of its subsidiary NXMH was less than half of the US$400 million, which was a big mistake.
As we all know, Robinhood is one of the most commonly used stock and crypto CEXs by American users, with 11 million monthly active users. It is even more popular than Coinbase in the field of crypto trading: Robinhood’s trading-based trading volume in the first quarter of this year Revenue increased by 59% year-on-year to US$329 million, of which cryptocurrency revenue was US$126 million, a year-on-year increase of 232%, a very strong performance.
Bitstamp, which was established in 2011, is the world's longest-running crypto CEX and is also considered one of the CEXs with higher compliance. It not only operates in Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, Slovenia, Singapore and the United States, but also operates in 50 countries around the world. Having valid licenses and registrations in multiple countries/regions can help Robinhood expand into other regions for crypto business.
And this is almost a perfect complementary relationship - Robinhood's current market is mainly focused on the United States, while competitors Kraken and eToro have stronger businesses in Europe. Therefore, although Bitstamp's 4 million users are not large, they are almost the largest. Most are in Europe, so it's a big leap for Robinhood's European expansion.
It is worth noting that just a month ago, Robinhood received a Wells notice from the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding RHC’s crypto asset listing, custody and platform operations (RHC activities), etc. theme, therefore, the acquisition of Bitstamp will expand Robinhood's global layout, thereby hedging the strong regulatory impact of the US SEC and ensuring that it never leaves the table.
In addition, Fortune magazine predicts that in addition to adding about 4 million new crypto customers to Robinhood, this transaction will also enable Robinhood to provide a wider range of cryptocurrency products to more institutional customers:
From the 15 tokens currently available in the US market and more than 30 tokens in Europe, the suite has been expanded to more than 85 included in Bitstamp, while Bitstamp's diversified services (such as staking, stablecoins, trading, custody and prime brokerage) have also expanded. It will help Robinhood attract more institutional customers and potentially accelerate its expansion suite in the European market.
Large payment/financial institutions return
In addition, not long ago, Binance once again allowed Mastercard users to purchase crypto assets on Binance. Binance-branded Visa cards have also resumed use on the trading platform. Binance stated that withdrawals using Mastercard Service will be restored later.
As early as March, MetaMask also reached a cooperation with Mastercard to conduct the first blockchain payment card test. Marketing materials show that MetaMask/Mastercard payment card is issued by Baanx and will be "the first truly decentralized Web3 payment solution." solution” that allows users to use cryptocurrency for everyday purchases wherever bank cards are accepted.
This can undoubtedly greatly solve the cognition and entry barriers of incremental users, moving towards seamless deposits and withdrawals (real-time exchange of legal currency and stable coins), and abstraction of the user experience to facilitate users (account abstraction, close to Web2 payment experience ) and other directions, especially opening up the connection between cryptocurrency and off-chain consumption scenarios, which is conducive to establishing an anchor between crypto assets and a wider asset pool.
summary
Generally speaking, in this environment where the market is suddenly warm and then cold, there are still quite a lot of positive factors slowly fermenting. As long as you observe carefully, you can still see confidence.
Although the howling of bears seems to be faintly audible, and the footsteps of bulls are far away, in this context, remaining cautiously optimistic, observing and actively participating at all times may be the only thing that can be done in the current market atmosphere.
