The price of Bitcoin fell by more than 4% in one day, falling to the $60,000 level and then rebounding slightly. Some analysts say that if the price falls below $60,500, the outflow of funds could further accelerate.
What's new: Jim Bianco, CEO of Bianco Research, said on the 24th through his “If the price remains below this level, there will be a rapid outflow of funds,” he argued.
Background to the issue: Jim Bianco is a known bond expert. Bianco Research, which he runs, specializes in investment strategies using macroeconomics, but is also famous for posting pessimistic views on the Bitcoin price when it is in danger.
On April 29, when the price of Bitcoin was hovering around the $58,000 level, he said, “More than 99% of Bitcoin spot ETFs are occupied by retail investors, and among them, there are hardly any institutional investors worth more than $100 million.” “Those who hold it are ‘paper hands (investors with poor long-term holding ability),’” he analyzed. The argument was that a mass sell-off could occur if the price fell below the average purchase price .
On May 1, a few days after he published his analysis, the price of Bitcoin actually fell below the Bitcoin spot ETF investor purchase price of $57,150 that he had suggested. However, there was no large-scale selling at the level of a sell-off. According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's 13F data released on May 15, as of the first quarter of last year, 944 institutional investors with assets of more than $100 million held Bitcoin spot ETFs . This means that Bianco's 'paper hand' hypothesis is exaggerated.
Important point: CEO Bianco made a similar point today. He said, “This type of product is led not by institutional investors or hedge funds, but by small individual investors who enjoy investing in cryptocurrency. These investors seek short-term momentum and have a tendency to get out as soon as a loss occurs.” .
Since the Spot BTC ETFs (all 10) started trading on January 11, over $14.8 billion has flowed in cumulatively.
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) June 24, 2024
As the top panel below shows, the average purchase price, or the daily BTC price weighted by daily inflows (blue), is ~$60.5k. The price is there again (black).… pic.twitter.com/O3rmaRSSIP
What catches the eye in the table he posted as an example, rather than the distribution of ETF investors' composition, is the fact that the price of Bitcoin attempted to break the high of $73,700 three times from last March until recently, but ultimately failed. As of the 24th, the accumulated new inflow into the Bitcoin spot ETF is approximately $14.8 billion. Even if only a portion is leaked, it can have a significant impact on the market. As of 10 p.m., the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $61,100 per piece.
