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Many friends have talked about this.
When I first saw it yesterday, I sent it to some friends to discuss whether it was rice washing or not.
I might want to talk about how to play this kind of cards, whether to play it or not, and how to get out after playing it.
I'll quote the previous operation of $mew here. Actually, there is no operation, just a few pure gambles. Why do I mention this? Because pure gambles are likely to have negative EV, which is similar to the feeling of 2 7 flush without a river card that everyone likes to see; but after all, Texas Hold'em is still a relatively fair game. Everyone can see the chips on the table, and the second hand is not certain, but when we are attacking on-chain meme, the most important thing in playing the chain is the second hand!
My winning rate is not high during this period. I have been communicating with many friends. I will share interesting projects when I see them. I have summarized some things and would like to communicate more. This article will be a bit long, with no fixed theme and will be written in a disorderly manner. I will talk about diamond hands, stop profit, sell at a loss, meme, trading logic, cash flow, etc.:
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Topic 1: MEME and Transactions:
1. What is considered selling? : First look at your own strategy. For example, I have several group friends who often play pump and are used to making three or four times the amount of money in a short period of time and then run away, forming a high winning rate strategy. In this case, A2GHnfpZvyeZX5Pr63jdMmo9uYbpaaKqHHuPD5xD2n6v
For this standard, as people who play pump and take short, there is no such thing as selling at a loss. If you hold it for one more second, it is irresponsible to your own strategy and it is gambling. Since it is gambling, your operation is actually no different from buying Doraemon at the beginning with a market value of 300k. Do you understand what I mean? "Selling at a loss" only exists in your strategy. Your stop-profit point needs to be adjusted, not because our pattern is not big enough or not diamond enough. To put it from another perspective, if we are players who often reach diamond, these April-June should be hell-level difficulties for you, because except for some celebrity coins that took off overnight, there are also eth's money laundering plates, most of which are reset to zero. The average winning rate of diamonds is less than 10%, and the situation of winning is also betting on real diamonds. Conversely, in March and April, the winning rate of diamonds may reach a terrifying 30%, which means that there is a high probability that the principal can be multiplied by more than ten times, as long as the rhythm is accurate.
To summarize the first point, if the stop profit is always not in place in your own strategy, then just modify the strategy. Don't rashly change your strategy to do diamond trading just because you are shorting and selling hundreds of times the target. Otherwise, you may lose badly. For a period of time, my winning rate was less than 10% because I was shorting and diamond trading repeatedly. There was no method, and I lost money faster than pure diamond trading.
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Topic 2. How to drill and why can we drill PNL over 1M?
This is also the topic I discussed with many big guys when I just entered the circle four years ago. Everyone has different opinions. Different people have different drills, and different drills are used for different targets. Those who drill for BTC, those who drill for azuki, and those who drill for pepe are not the same kind of people at all. The drill we are discussing here refers to drilling for on-chain meme. How to drill out 1-3m?
The essence of drilling is to have sufficient backing, such as mew, bome, pew, pepe, etc. Drilling without sufficient backing is all gambling, pure gambling. I am against all hindsight, which is why I never review mew's game. This kind of pure gambling does not require any skills. I never brag that I made money by drilling mew by relying on analysis and skills. It was all luck. At that time, tens of thousands of red packets were sent in the group. Luck is attributed to metaphysics, and we just don't care about it.
Then, the premise of diamond on-chain meme is that we have a lot of money and sufficient cash flow to support a long-term trading strategy with a win rate of less than 10%-20% and a loss rate of EV. This trading strategy should not account for 5% of our total investment portfolio. For some people with large funds, 5% may have to be reduced to around 2%. All our diamond hand behaviors based on the chain are gambling, unless there is inside information or abnormal behavior is analyzed. In fact, whether it is today's Doraemon, Pew Pepew, or Mew, even if I know the control structure and know that there is a problem with the source of funds, the moment I place the bet is the gambling abyss, there is nothing to wash.
So in conclusion, I don't recommend small-capital players to make diamonds. For those who can make diamonds with small capital, there may be opportunities for the inscriptions and runes from some time ago. In March, June, and December last year, there were many opportunities for small-capital players to make diamonds, because the cost of inscriptions is really not that high. As long as you are not rushing to hot spots such as vmpx, the return rate of making some inscriptions in the early stage may be sufficient. There are many differences between on-chain meme and inscriptions. Here are some details:
We often talk about memes, but in fact, there are several types of memes. Different meme player groups are different from people at the gambling table. This is why I say that memes are not so easy to drill for small-capital players now. Inscriptions are a unified consensus track with a general rise and fall effect. Memes are actually fragmented and diversified. For the time being, I divide memes into the following types, based on the gambling points and basic market:
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① Hot meme: short life cycle, strong explosive power, high odds, high risk, similar to RNT DJT, single "bet point", generally the upward momentum relies on the expected consistency of information, which is also the target I will never do, it requires concentration, full attention, and firmly grasp the market hot spots to be an early buyer; this kind of target is also difficult to drill, drilling is to eat by the weather, most of the money-making is to take a wave and leave, mainly in large bands
② Long-term narrative memes: They have a long life cycle, multiple “betting points”, and are the memes with the highest winning rate for most people. They are similar to several memes about the US election concept, and the memes about AI and X during the quarrel between Musk and OpenAI. This type of meme often breaks out from time to time, because the whale’ buying caused by different angles of political and news reports often gives swing players a lot of opportunities to exit, and they can also drill. There is a basic narrative. Once the bottleneck on the chain is broken, such as 30m or 100m, you can choose to continue drilling and wait for a bigger buyer to intervene.
③ Original memes: This is a large category, which is divided into many subcategories. The "gambling points" are diversified, but the risks are mostly higher than long-term narrative memes. Original memes are further divided into the following categories
1. Money laundering original, such as $mew $pew $pepe, this type is the easiest for diamond hands to make money, violent pull-up and turnover can easily make diamond hands make money in the short term of 7 days or even 3 days (when can 3 days be considered diamond... but the market is like this, there is really nothing we can do, we can't be diamonds for a year), this type of plate gambling angle is very single, look at the size of the pool, basically three sets, burning locks renounce, and freeloading, betting on coins airdrop pre-sale KOL shout, this type of plate is basically pure gambling, unless insider information
Doraemon is a platform that fills up all the chips by itself, distributes tokens, and controls 99% of the chips. What angle do you think you should buy it from? It is pure gambling. You bet that it is not rugged, or that it is money laundering. If you have money, you can gamble. If you don’t have money, you can’t gamble, unless you start your business by gambling on this kind of platform. There are many such platforms every day. We can try to count them.
2. Original platform meme: This is also a major branch. For example, shark cat, michi, and popcat can be considered as the main contributors to pump, such as pac of balst, degen of degen chain, etc. The existence of this kind of meme solves the problem of the platform's casino's new benefit effect. We don't discuss whether the chicken or the egg came first. If I'm wrong, you can spray me. There are many gambling points in platform memes. They not only integrate originality, but also add the background of institutions. There are multiple game angles, and it is also easy for users to make a lot of money with diamonds.
http://3. Institutional original memes: This is difficult to comment on. It is generally not possible to discuss in public, and there are many post-event factors. The betting point is single, but the explosion rate is very high. For example, the early silly dragon, the mid-term wif bome slerf, these memes are supported by institutions, and there is always an invisible hand behind them. If there are some conspiracy theories, it can be said that these memes are made by sol to sell sol. Institutional memes can often ignite market sentiment and bring about a fomo trend. They are listed quickly and have a fierce style of play. They are also the favorite of diamond hands. Diamond hands with inside information can easily make money on these.
④ Derivative nested meme: This is a meme that is extremely simple for some people and extremely difficult for others. It has a single bet point, such as the gme family bucket. In fact, this is similar to the hot meme, but I will talk about it separately. The main reason is that this thing can be predicted to a certain extent and gamble on expectations. The stock price of gme, the activities of wsb, news, etc. can all help you better judge the trading point in advance, but this is very troublesome for less professional investors, and it is also difficult to make diamond hands because valuation is difficult to evaluate.
⑤ NFT/product/exchange derived memes, such as milady's cult mfer ape bitget cat WEN, etc. This type of gambling point is very simple, and you can follow the path of the past, such as memeland's tokens and mfer's tokens, which can be compared with APE to calculate the valuation. For example, some memes released by products with financing also have references. This type of meme is relatively simple for players who are familiar with valuation and follow the path of the past, and it is also easy to drill.
⑥Pump theme meme: This can be discussed separately, and it can even combine many of the above points. Pump is just a way of issuance, but it has spawned many ways of playing. There are many bets, such as betting on CTO, betting on KOL, betting on hot spot transfer, betting on new and old narratives, etc. It is listed separately because pump should be the most difficult meme trading mode. It is complex and changeable, and different traders have different fun in it. The small pool may be the only commonality. We can learn about world news through the daily dev pump releases, which has become my main way to understand the world.
There are some very small branches that I won’t go into detail about, but I may add more later.
The reason why I give so many examples of memes is that we need to know what memes we are good at and what kind of memes we can easily make money from. This is very different from inscriptions. Inscriptions may be divided into application coins, institutional coins, community coins, etc., and they can be sorted by simple divisions; memes are really all-encompassing. The memes we usually talk about may not be memes of the same track. There is an insurmountable cognitive gap between players.
I think small funds are suitable for gambling ①, ② and ⑤. These are easier to judge the buying and selling points, and are also the way I had the highest winning rate in the early days.
Big funds will try to go for swings, try to drill and bet early
Everything we do is to increase our capital and extend our chips so that we can judge clearly what we want to do and what has the highest chance of winning, and choose the appropriate trading method and diamond rhythm.
In essence, we can drill more than 1m-3m. Apart from luck and insider information, I think there is no other explanation. It's all about gambling on probability. The longer our chips are, the more likely we are to drill with a high multiplier.
I was able to cash in on mew in March and April because I had a long stack of chips, so I bet with my eyes closed. If I got lucky, I made money.
Similarly, this kind of diamond hand style of play will most likely fail in April-June, and most of the failures will be very miserable. I lost hundreds of thousands of U with the same strategy in these months, so I thought a lot, the strategy was not used at the right time and on the right target category.
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Theme 3. Kakegurui
Betting big or small is all about probability. All the preparations and experiences we have now are to calculate a probability and odds before making a subjective judgment, which is usually caused by losing money. Survivor bias exists in each of us. The most difficult part of gambling is perhaps to recognize what you are betting on, what type, how to bet, who your opponents are, what level your capital belongs to, what buying and selling strategy is suitable compared to the current plate, etc.
The main reason I like gambling is because of dopamine and some mental stimulation. I may be in a state of mental instability for a long time and lack happiness, so I like gambling, and it has become a habit over time.
But I now realize that the reason I can keep gambling is that I have stable cash flow business income, reliable family support, and a lot of predictable risk resistance to support me to do so.
During the most chaotic period, I also took OTC funds, used leverage, etc. These are all gambling, but the gambling is bigger than that of ordinary people.
Most social activities in life are gambling, love, work, interpersonal relationships, health, even crossing the road when driving, you have to bet that the dump truck driver is not cerebral palsy,
Everything is chaotic and disordered. There are some objective laws, but not many. Most of the laws we can see are the result of long-term deduction. Sometimes there will be deviations, just like in The Matrix, among countless neos, a savior and a Smith appeared; just like in Alien, there were giant creatures and aliens. I don’t know when I will let go of these things and stop thinking about them.
But the unknown and the things that make us look forward to them are always full of magic. Even if we don’t actively approach them, we will accidentally get involved for various reasons. We can only accept and get used to them and find our own place.
The most fundamental things in all gambling are family assets, cash flow, health and stable connections. When these no longer exist, you can only gamble everything and become the stupidest rooftop guardian.
I am very grateful to those who are willing to communicate with me. I also hate those who look down on me or despise me. If I really had a gun in my hand, I might be the worst antisocial person. But there are not so many ifs. Life is a meme, a meme of different tracks. You are an institutional meme, he is a hot meme, and I am an original meme. Living a drama may be the most interesting. Everyone's life can be written into a drama.
Go ahead and keep on gambling.
