Author: Sam Reynolds Source: coindesk Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance
The odds of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the 2024 election have risen sharply on Polymarket.
There is growing market sentiment that President Biden will either not become the Democratic nominee or will drop out of the race.
Blockchain bettors are skeptical about President Biden’s performance in the first debate of the 2024 election cycle, pushing former President Trump’s odds of winning the November election to 67%.
A contract that asks gamblers to predict the outcome of the 2024 election has now seen nearly $188 million in bets, with about $23 million on Trump and $21 million on Biden. Bets on Polymarket are placed in smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain and settled in the USDC stablecoin.
Polymarket said that when the debate began, the website experienced a brief outage due to excessive traffic.
Judging from market sentiment, there is growing doubt about whether Biden can hold out until Election Day.
Biden has less than a 70% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, according to Polymarket, with California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Michelle Obama at 7%.
Another question asking whether Biden would drop out of the presidential race surged to 43% during the debate.
Meanwhile, PoliFi token traders pushed the two main tokens representing Trump and Biden into the red.
According to CoinGecko data, the MAGA token with the ticker TRUMP fell 12.5%, while the BODEN token fell 34%. TREMP also fell 10%. The DJT token, which recently made headlines for its apparent connection to Barron Trump, fell 5%.
Cryptocurrency was not mentioned during the debate, despite it becoming a Republican campaign issue. Polymarket asked Trump if he would mention cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin, and the results showed that it was unlikely, with the highest percentage being 6%.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not invited to the debate, but he answered questions posed during the Trump-Biden debate in a special Channel X live broadcast that has been viewed 5.6 million times on the social media platform.
