Warning: The Polymarket gaming mechanism mentioned in this article is purely of a research nature. It is not recommended to participate in candidate betting involving election regulations in different countries. Gambling is illegal in most countries.
The U.S. presidential election will be officially held on November 5 this year. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who represents the Republican Party, is actively seeking votes to challenge current U.S. President Joe Biden, who is seeking re-election. However, unlike previous elections, this election candidates Trump and Biden have successively released news that is good for cryptocurrency, striving for the support of people in the cryptocurrency field.
Presidential election betting boom
Against this background, the monthly trading volume of the decentralized gaming platform Polymarket exceeded the $100 million mark for the first time in June, mainly because investors increased their bets on the results of the US presidential election. According to Polymarket's real-time data (which Taiwanese users may not be able to browse), the current betting value of "Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election" is US$204 million, including multiple betting options.
in:
- Former U.S. President Trump is the most popular candidate, with a 63% chance of winning, with a total bet of $24.78 million.
- Followed by the current US President Biden, the probability of winning dropped from the previous 34% to 18%, with a corresponding total bet of US$24.08 million. The reason for the decline may be related to his lackluster performance at the June 28 presidential debate.
- There are many other independent candidates, but the probability is less than 5%.
The Democratic Party's "replacement" controversy broke out, and the winning chances of many candidates soared
In addition, according to previous reports in the dynamic zone, due to concerns that the first debate will lead to the collapse of the presidential election, the New York Times, a liberal newspaper that has always been leaning towards the Democratic Party, recently published an editorial with a strong and blunt title: "To serve the country, President Biden should withdraw from the race." .
Many columnists in the New York Times also called on Biden to withdraw from the election in a rare and unanimous voice. Democrats and some donors are also reported to be exploring the possibility of changing the coach before the election.
Extended reading: Biden’s disastrous poll: 70% of voters do not trust him to be president again, and the meme currency $BODEN plummeted 95% from its historical high.
PolyMarket’s transaction volume increased by 620% in the first half of the year
On the other hand, according to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket, which runs on the Ethereum side chain Polygon, had a trading volume of $111 million in June, breaking the $100 million mark for the first time.
Polymarket's trading volume from January to May hovered between US$38.9 million and US$63 million, a 620% increase from the previous five months (August to December 2023).
In addition to the U.S. presidential election, predictions of cryptocurrency prices and the 2024 European Football Championship (6/14~7/14) also contribute large trading volumes to Polymarket.
High potential of prediction market
Although prediction gambling is illegal in most countries, the head of engineering at exchange Coinbase said that decentralized prediction markets are a way to dispel "misleading narratives" and see the truth:
Prediction markets are a technology that preserves freedom and can move society forward
It is worth mentioning that Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, also issued an article on the 12th of last month, giving multiple directions for the future development of cryptocurrency, including prediction markets. In addition, V God is also an investor in Polymarket.
