Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: June 17–21, 2024

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Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.4 trillion, of which BTC accounts for 54.21%, or $1.28 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $153.1 billion.

This week, the price of BTC fluctuated sideways between $64,000 and $67,000. It is worth noting that although the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $544 million, crypto whale continued to increase their positions this week. For example, MicroStrategy used the proceeds from convertible bonds and excess cash to acquire an additional 11,931 bitcoins at a price of $65,883 per BTC, worth $786 million. As of June 20, MicroStrategy held a total of 226,331 BTC, with an acquisition price of approximately $8.33 billion and an average price of $36,798 per BTC.

This week, Altcoin continued to fall across the board. A few projects that performed well included CVX, which rose 60% in 7 days. Recently, ZkSync and Layerzero caused community dissatisfaction due to their airdrop mechanisms.

The "Fear & Greed Index" is 53, with 2 days of neutrality and 5 days of greed this week.

Understand now

Review of the week's major events

1. David Hirsch, head of the crypto assets and network department of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), resigned;

2. LayerZero launches a new community role system designed to reward community members, developers, and content creators;

3. Coinbase International and Coinbase Advanced will launch the Pre-Launch market, allowing trading of perpetual futures contracts for tokens that have not yet been issued;

4. Bloomberg analysts: Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be launched before July 4;

5. Consensys: The US SEC is ending its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 and will no longer accuse ETH sales of being securities transactions;

6. Bitcoin trading platform reserves fell to a nearly 3-year low, indicating low selling pressure and potential supply shocks;

7. Eigen Foundation announced that the second phase of the EIGEN airdrop in Season 1 is now open, and Season 2 is in progress;

8. Jupiter co-founder Meow announced the draft J4J plan, proposing to reduce the total supply of JUP by 30%;

9. Arthur Hayes analyzed that the Bank of Japan may sell off U.S. Treasuries on a large scale. If the Federal Reserve prints money to buy back these U.S. Treasuries, it will bring a new round of liquidity to the cryptocurrency market, which may boost the bull market;

10. 3iQ has submitted a preliminary prospectus for the listing of the Solana Fund in Canada, which will be the first Solana ETP in North America;

11. NFT project Azuki hired former Hollywood executive Steve Chung as chief operating officer to use his expertise to expand fan base and revenue;

12. Gemini co-founders Winklevoss brothers donated $1 million worth of Bitcoin to Trump's campaign team and said they would support Trump in the election;

13. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating Jump Crypto, and it is unclear whether it will bring charges against the company.

Macroeconomics

1. Consensys: The US SEC is ending its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 and will no longer allege that ETH sales are securities transactions;

2. CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 88.6%;

3. Fed's Collins: The Fed has made "significant progress" in reducing inflation, and one or two rate cuts may occur in 2024.

ETF

According to statistics, from June 17 to 21, the net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF was US$544 million; as of June 22, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of US$18.36 billion, currently holding US$17.883 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds US$19.633 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETF is US$58.143 billion.

Predicting the future

Upcoming Events

1. Zhejiang University Blockchain Association will hold an offline event with the theme of "AI+Web3 Workshop" in Hangzhou at 14:00 on June 22, 2024. Guests include ZJUBCA President Artist, ZJUBCA Vice President Freya, Pond core contributor SANZHI, The Graph Asia Pacific Community and Ecology Director Anthony, and The Graph Community Technical Support Jerry;

2. IVS2024 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 4 to 6. The summit, with the theme of "Crossing Borders", will bring together Japanese startups to focus on how Web2, Web3 and artificial intelligence shape the world.

Project Progress

1. The zkVerifier Node whitelist registration application for the modular computing power layer & ZKRaaS platform Lumoz is open until 15:00 on June 24. Lumoz zkVerifier Node is an important part of the Lumoz network and is mainly responsible for verifying the execution results. The upper limit of Lumoz zkVerifier Node sold this time is 200,000, and it is on a first-come, first-served basis. All users around the world can participate in the whitelist registration, purchase and participate in the operation of the entire network, and then earn 40 million Lumoz points (before the mainnet is launched), 25% Lumoz Token mining (after the mainnet is launched), and Lumoz ecological new chain potential token airdrops and other rewards;

2. The Ethereum L2 network Blast airdrop will be launched on June 26. Blast said that due to a slight delay from the initial estimate of May, the airdrop allocation will be increased;

3. The next halving date of BitTorrent ecological file storage network BTFS is 00:00 UTC on June 25 (08:00 Beijing time on June 26);

4. Tap Protocol token TAP will be launched on June 28;

5. The Solana ecosystem DePIN protocol io.net’s Ignition Season 3 event will be open from June 1st to June 30th.

important events

1. Canada will impose capital gains tax on stocks and cryptocurrencies from June 25, with tax rates ranging from 50% to 67%, which will affect individuals with capital gains of more than 250,000 Canadian dollars per year. There is no tax on buying or holding cryptocurrencies; cryptocurrencies are taxed as business income or capital gains in trading activities such as cryptocurrency sales and mining activities. Individual cryptocurrency holders are subject to tax on 50% of their total capital gains, while professional traders (day traders) are subject to tax on 100% of their profits;

2. The Zimbabwean government seeks opinions on regulating cryptocurrency operations and hopes to receive comments before June 26;

3. Hungary is promoting a legislative proposal, which was put forward by the Hungarian Ministry of Economy. It plans to allow banks, investment funds and asset management companies to provide cryptocurrency market services. The Hungarian Central Bank will be responsible for regulating cryptocurrency services. The legislation will take effect on June 30;

4. The new stablecoin rules implemented by the EU Crypto-Asset Market (MiCA) framework will come into force on June 30, 2024, affecting stablecoins and the wider digital asset market across the European Economic Area (EEA);

5. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is reviewing blockchain MEV (maximum extractable value) to determine whether it constitutes market manipulation, with the deadline for public feedback being the end of June.

Token Unlock

1. AltLayer (ALT) will unlock 105 million tokens on June 25, worth approximately $20.92 million, accounting for 6.92% of the circulation;

2. Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock 16.69 million tokens on June 27, worth approximately $10.27 million, accounting for 4.48% of the circulation.

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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