Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

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07-03
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Written by: Sleeping in the Rain

gm frens July Outlook is here~

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

Let’s mainly talk about the narrative that may be hyped in July and my personal rating.

1/ Ethereum S-level

The most important things in July are ETH ETF and Mt. Gox. The market always reacts to events before they happen. As events come, their impact on the market will become smaller and smaller. This is why people often say "Buy the Rumour, Sell the News". If history rhymes, ETH may perform similarly to BTC after the ETF is passed - of course, we also have to consider the overall macro environment and the impact of the US election on the market.

However, on the issue of Sell the news, I agree with Zhusu's point of view.

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

Regarding ETH Beta, I have previously selected four coins: $ENS $ETHFI $TURBO $MOG . The prices of $TURBO and $MOG are very volatile and suitable for swing trading, while $ENS performs best. Regarding $TURBO, I will update my understanding: it is not very related to ETH, so it will be removed from the list. The current list is: $ENS $LDO $PEPE $MOG $MKR ($MKR is still the same split-and-rename narrative, and the agreement revenue/fundamentals are also great)

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

Friends who are interested can look back at this tweet of mine⬇️

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

 https://x.com/0xSleepinRain/status/1801638573176930698

2/ Layer1 (A level), Layer2 (B level), Layer3 (C level)

Solana A-Class

I have talked about my point of view before. Solana currently has only one narrative, which is the casino of memecoin. The catalyst of ETF application, Blink, and the previous narratives of Depin and Solana Mobile still need time to verify. In summary, Solana’s goal is mass adoption, but there is still a long way to go. At present, the market demand for Solana is only hype memecoin.

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

Avalanche B-Class

Avalanche may launch some new activities similar to the previous Avalanche Rush. "Proof of $AVAXBoost"

https://x.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/1805643864193351908

Fantom B-Class

Converted to $S, I have already talked about it in the previous tweet ⬇️

https://x.com/0xSleepinRain/status/1805875415116136876

I don’t have much to share about Layer2, and I mainly focus on the wealth effect of Basechain and the Farming opportunities on Arbitrum. However, there are not many opportunities for Layer2 tokens such as $ARB $OP to intervene. At the same time, if the ZK narrative explodes, you know which target to choose:)

$ZK is the best meme of ZK.

Regarding Layer3 $XAI, let me briefly talk about my views.

At present, the TPS on the Xai chain has reached 104, ranking first in Ethereum Layer2&Layer3. I have explained this phenomenon in my previous tweets. In addition, on July 9, $XAI will unlock about 200 million tokens (accounting for 71% of the current circulation)-this is a super large unlocking event. Conspiratorially, are these two things related? Will Xai use data to make the price growth more reasonable? Everything is unknown. But I have included $XAI in my Watchlist, and once the price changes unusually, I will intervene immediately.

https://x.com/0xSleepinRain/status/1803298199295369417

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

I have always been optimistic about $DEGEN, but the price performance is very bad. So I won’t go into details here.

All in all, the price of Layer3 Token mainly depends on catalysts and narratives. There are not many real users (here referring to $DEGEN $DMT and $WINR), so the short-term is greater than the long-term.

3/ RWA A-level

$ONDO is the best target and is closely related to BlackRock’s stuff. Ondo and Ethereum are the main battlefields for BlackRock to promote tokenization.

4/ AI Level A

There is not much to talk about. The merger of $FET $OCEAN $AGIX is about to end, and the unlocking of $WLD has begun. If the rise of the sector depends on the release of external products/technology, it is also short-term speculation. Among the 30-day narrative strengths and weaknesses, the price performance of AI Token is the weakest.

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

 https://dune.com/dyorcrypto/relative-strength-crypto-narrative

5/ Social networking is still a false proposition at present, and the current rating is C.

Previously, I thought that Coinbase Smart Wallet would bring a wave of hype about Basechain. In the end, under this market sentiment, the overall performance of Basechain ecosystem was not impressive, and only $BRETT stood out. I failed miserably in this wave of coin selection. In retrospect, the market liquidity and sentiment are not enough to sustain the explosion of Basechain ecosystem. Maybe only one coin or two or three coins will have outstanding performance. It is not good to intervene too much on the left side. You can only monitor the on-chain market at any time and intervene on the right side.

6/ Game, current rating C. False proposition x2

Pixels Online is still performing strongly, but the price performance is very poor.

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

The Beacon performed poorly - although related activities promoted the return of old players and the joining of new players, the sustainability was not good.

Mavia launched Phase 2, please refer to this tweet for details, but the market is not buying it⬇️

https://x.com/MaviaGame/status/1801857117797892497

From the comparison of the strength and weakness of narrative tokens in the past 90 days, we can clearly see that the performance of game narratives in the last quarter was not impressive (low EQ: the worst). I look forward to a reversal, but I will not intervene at present.

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

For specific events in July, please check this picture ⬇️

Crypto market outlook for July: Focus on ETH ETF, Solana may lead L1 again

Regarding macroeconomic forecasts, I recommend these two articles:

https://x.com/DistilledCrypto/status/1803935278035537931

https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/shikata-ga-nai?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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