Bitcoin continued to fall today, falling below $58,000. Some people say that it was caused by Mentougou starting to repay $8 billion in cryptocurrencies to users, but in fact, the wallet address of Mentougou has not moved. Some people say that now is the best time to buy, is it true?
@the_smart_ape shared his views on X. He believes that now is not the time to buy, at least not for himself. He will wait until Mentougou’s repayment is completed before taking action. 
The following content was compiled by Followin :
Don't listen to those who say now is the best time to buy!
Another crisis is coming, and Bitcoin could be hit hard!
Read this before you make your decision
Many people tell you that now is the best time to buy. 
This might have been the case if it weren’t for the sudden announcement of $9 billion in BTC being released onto the market all at once.
This event will have a significant impact on the ecosystem, so let's put aside our emotions, remain neutral, and see what the impact will be.
As we all know, Mt. Gox was a CEX based in Japan and was one of the largest CEXs at the time (2010-14).
But they suffered several hacking attacks at that time, which caused them to shut down and freeze all customer funds. In a series of hacking incidents, Mt. Gox lost a total of 850,000 BTC. 
A few years ago, they found 200,000 BTC in an old wallet format.
The Japanese court decided to redistribute 140,000 BTC to affected customers.
The distribution was initially scheduled for October 2023, then pushed back to October 2024, and most recently brought forward to July 2024. 
When these customers lost their BTC, the value of the BTC ranged from $1 to $500.
Once they are compensated, they will receive 500x to 60,000x their money.
This time the refunds will be in BTC rather than fiat currency, so it's reasonable to assume that most people will sell for a gain. 
These bitcoins have not yet been distributed.
how could I know?
Mt. Gox addresses are public, so you can track their on-chain activity.
They have 3 addresses, each containing 47,228 $BTC.
The easiest way to track the evolution of these wallets is to use @ArkhamIntel:
• Go to @ArkhamIntel
• Type “Mt. Gox” in the search bar: https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/mt-gox
• Select Entity
You will find a dashboard that allows you to track all Mt. Gox wallet changes and transactions.
I monitor these wallets on a daily basis.
Why?
Because I am not buying any Bitcoin until those $9 billion are allocated.
These funds are creating a huge amount of uncertainty in the market, so trading before this is resolved is risky.
Is this necessarily bearish?
Not necessarily. Remember last year $ETH when the withdrawal function was unlocked for all ETH2.0 stakers (Shanghai upgrade).
Some people made 10x and 100x, but the price was not significantly affected. 
Furthermore, all of these customers are crypto-native users and most of them are still within the ecosystem.
These released $BTC may connect to other ecosystems.
This could end up being the event that reduces Bitcoin dominance and kicks off the Altcoin season. 
We also need to consider that FTX still owes its users $11-15 billion.
This money will be injected into the market quickly and will likely remain in the industry as FTX users are generally native cryptocurrency users. 
As you can see, things are more complicated than we thought.
It is difficult to say whether this event is good or bad for the market.
But it is certainly uncertain.
In times of uncertainty, my strategy has always been to wait.
So I will only be watching the Mt. Gox wallet and once they have repaid all their customers I will resume buying.
