The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the probability of Joe Biden dropping out of the election has increased to 80%, which has almost doubled compared with the data a few days ago.
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TogglePolymarket is unilaterally bearish on Biden
The 81-year-old Biden's recent positive test for the new coronavirus, coupled with his poor performance in last month's debate, triggered a lot of talk about Biden withdrawing from the race.
According to Axios , many senior Democratic Party officials and Biden's relatives and friends are urging him to announce his withdrawal from the race in the next few days, and the pressure is increasing.
Two days ago, Polymarket predicted that Biden's probability of withdrawing from the election was only close to 33%, but it has since increased significantly.
Foreign media: Obama asks Biden to consider withdrawing from the race
According to ABC reports, in the past week, many top Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have told Biden that he should withdraw from the race.
CNN reported that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Biden that polls showed he could not defeat Trump and that Biden could destroy the Democrats' chances of winning seats in the House of Representatives.
In addition, according to the Washington Post , former President Obama also warned Biden that he needs to seriously consider the feasibility of re-election.
The potential pressure from all parties comes as the Democratic National Convention approaches, where the Democratic Party will choose its presidential candidate on August 19 in Chicago.
Users on Polymarket predict that current US Vice President Kamala Harris will become the Democratic candidate, with the probability rising to 66%.
Biden’s chance of winning has dropped to 4% (chart below).
In addition, related meme coins Kamala Horris (KAMA) and Gabin Noosum (NOOSUM) rose by 31.5% and 124% respectively.
