Initial trading of the Ethereum spot ETF will begin on Tuesday morning US time, tonight Beijing time.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
In the past ten years, countless heroes have emerged and competed for a while, but in the end, only a few people and projects can be called time-tested. Ten years ago, Vitalik gave a speech full of codes in Silicon Valley. The PPT presentation process was all codes. After the speech, all the investors below were excited and said that this is the future. Then Ethereum completed $20 million in financing through ICO, setting a new record at the time. At that time, the price of one ETH was around $0.3. Today, the current price of Ethereum is above $3,000. If you participated in the public offering at that time and held it until now, the return would be more than 10,000 times.
In early May, when the news of the Ethereum spot ETF's imminent approval was announced, market sentiment was high, and ETH once approached $4,000, and then continued to fall under the sluggish market. After the news of approval was confirmed at the end of July, the market began to rebound from the beginning of July, regaining lost ground and rising above $3,500. L2, ZK, re-staking, and stablecoins around Ethereum all saw a good rebound.
How much money can the Ethereum spot ETF bring? The Bitcoin spot ETF has been highly anticipated, causing the BTC price to rise from the end of last year until it was officially approved. On January 11, the total net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF on its first day of official trading reached $628 million. Market institutions have predicted that the Ethereum spot ETF will attract 15%-20% of the funds attracted by the Bitcoin spot ETF. If it reaches 15%, the total capital inflow will be about $94 million.
After the approval of the BTC spot ETF, some of the profit-taking funds stopped taking profits, causing the BTC price to fall from a peak of around $49,000 to $38,000. After the selling pressure weakened, BTC began to rise continuously and hit a record high of $73,777. The chart data shows that when the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF is high, the price is strong, and when the net inflow is negative, the price falls.
The market is paying attention. How will the price trend be next?
Market Maker Wintermute: Ethereum Price Could Rise by Up to 24% in the Next 12 Months
Market maker Wintermute believes that the Ethereum ETF could attract up to $4 billion in inflows from investors over the next year. This is lower than the $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion expected by most analysts, which is about 62% less than the $17 billion that the Bitcoin ETF has attracted since it was traded in the United States in the past six months.
However, Wintermute expects that Ethereum's price could rise as much as 24% in the next 12 months, driven by these inflows. U.S. regulators rejected the issuer's request to allow Ethereum ETFs to pledge their cryptocurrency holdings, which could generate income and share it with investors. "This loss reduces the competitiveness of Ethereum ETFs relative to direct holdings, and investors can still benefit from staking," Wintermute said in its report.
Farside Investors: Ethereum ETF inflows may be smaller than Bitcoin ETF
Farside Investors, a London-based investment management company, released a report stating, “We believe that Ethereum ETF inflows may be smaller than Bitcoin ETFs for the following reasons:
1. Bitcoin ETF was approved first, attracting more attention;
2. Before the US spot ETF was approved, the market size of Bitcoin’s exchange-traded products (ETP) was larger than that of Ethereum;
3. The lack of staking functionality makes Ethereum ETFs relatively unattractive;
4. Bitcoin is more relevant as a financial asset, while Ethereum focuses more on decentralized applications (dApps) and on-chain usage.
Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio: holding long positions in ETH and SOL tokens
Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio said on his social platform that the best approach on the topic of ETH vs. SOL is to maintain an objective perspective and plan to profit when sentiment is too biased towards one side. "In my list of all profitable currencies, ETH ranks first and SOL ranks second." Currently, I hold a long position in both tokens.
IntoTheBlock: $3,500 becomes Ethereum’s key resistance level
IntoTheBlock data analysis shows that Ethereum has been struggling to break through the $3,500 resistance level since July 16. A major factor contributing to this challenge is that 3.13 million addresses purchased ETH at an average price of $3,547. These addresses are holding at a loss, increasing selling pressure and making it difficult for ETH to break through this key level.
BRN analyst: Ethereum spot ETF will see a sell-off on the day of launch, followed by a gradual recovery
Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, said that the price of Ethereum may fall immediately after the launch of the Ethereum ETF spot trading. He said, "Ethereum may face huge selling pressure at the beginning of this week, and the launch of the ETF may not be able to offset this pressure immediately." Therefore, Ethereum may face selling pressure on the day of the ETF launch, and then gradually recover.
10x Research: I suspect many people will choose to sell and take profits as soon as the ETF is launched - or even before it is launched
10x Research's latest article stated that although ETH has rebounded to $3,500 before the ETF was approved, we suspect that many people will choose to sell and take profits immediately after the ETF is launched - or even before it is launched. Compared with the situation of Bitcoin spot ETF in February, Ethereum spot ETF is unlikely to attract too much arbitrage funds, thereby weakening the optimism about ETH.
From a technical perspective, ETH's Stochastics indicator has basically peaked, which means that it is a good short now - we will use the recent high of 3560 as the stop loss. Relatively speaking, we prefer to hedge short ETH while long BTC, rather than short directly. Considering the above factors and the fact that the issuer of the ETF has not yet carried out a large-scale marketing campaign; plus some traders will choose to close some long positions when the news comes out; in addition, we have to take into account the potential outflow of funds from Grayscale... This can indeed be a reason to be bearish on ETH, at least in the early stages.
Bitwise CIO: Ethereum ETF inflows will push ETH to break through $5,000 by the end of the year and set a new all-time high
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said that spot ETF inflows may have a greater impact on ETH than on Bitcoin. The price of ETH is expected to be "volatile" in the first few weeks after the Ethereum ETF goes live, as funds may flow out of the $11 billion Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) after it is converted to a spot ETF. But by the end of the year, it believes that the price of ETH will break through $5,000 and set a new all-time high. If the flow is stronger than many market commentators expect, the price may be even higher.
Polymarket predicts that 56% of participants believe that ETH will hit a record high this year
The prediction market Polymarket, which has recently become popular due to the political election, has seen record high trading volume in recent days. Data shows that 56% of market participants believe that the price of ETH will hit a record high this year.
