At 9:30 am yesterday, the spot Ethereum ETF began trading, and the ETH price remained stagnant. At the close of yesterday, the total ETF trading volume exceeded $1.1 billion, which was in line with the speculation of ETF analysts.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is hovering around $65,900 a day ahead of the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. Ethereum is weak against Bitcoin, trading at $3,449 at press time, which could turn the launch of an ETF into a sell-off news event.
ETH price expected to rise 4% ahead of Bitcoin conference
The ETH/BTC price chart shows that the price has been trending down since the peak at the end of May, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The chart shows that the price may be forming a falling wedge pattern, which is usually a bullish continuation pattern. Given the resistance area near the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break below the downtrend line may confirm that the price will fall further.
If the falling wedge resolves to the upside, Ethereum price could rise against BTC and surge to 0.0545 BTC to test the ascending trendline. A breakout could push ETH price to 0.0574 BTC, which coincides with the next major resistance level.
Conversely, if the bears push the price lower, 0.0511 BTC will act as a strong resistance-turned-support area. Ethereum price prediction shows that the asset is trending below the 50-day (0.0531 BTC) and 200-day SMA (0.0534 BTC), which provides immediate resistance for the asset pair. The BTC price prediction relative strength index (RSI) is around 45, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bearish bias. The RSI 14-day SMA (yellow) provides resistance, which could keep Ethereum's price from falling as the bullish momentum fades.
The volume surged after the Ethereum ETF trading launch on July 23. The price subsequently rose by 3.71% but retreated after encountering resistance at the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.
Will the Bitcoin Conference Upstage the Ethereum ETF Launch?
Ethereum spot ETFs have received a lot of hype and speculation in the weeks leading up to their launch. Grayscale is the largest ETH ETF with $8.6 billion in net assets.
However, data from SoSo Value shows that Grayscale has seen outflows of $484 million since the ETF launched. Still, cumulative net inflows reached $106.78 million, solidifying a successful first day of trading.
Ethereum’s lackluster performance may be blamed on the upcoming Bitcoin 2024 conference. A series of market-moving events may have interfered with speculation about the impact of the ETF launch.
Summarize
Despite the Ethereum ETF’s trading volume exceeding $1.1 billion, ETH prices still struggled to break the $3,500 threshold. This shows that high trading volume does not always directly translate into price increases. After the ETF’s successful first day of trading, the Ethereum price rose only 4.2% against Bitcoin in the short term.
simply put
1. Grayscale is the largest ETH ETF, with outflows reaching $484 million since its launch.
2. The upcoming meeting has suppressed the hype of ETH ETF, and it is difficult for Ethereum to surpass BTC.
3. Ethereum ETF saw net inflows of more than $106.78 million on its first day of trading.
