Odaily星球日报讯 利率期货继续定价对美联储 9 月份开始降息的押注，预计 2024 年余下的每次会议都将降息。（金十）

利率期货继续定价对美联储降息押注，预计2024年余下的每次会议都将降息

Odaily Odaily News Interest rate futures continue to price in bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, and it is expected that every remaining meeting in 2024 will cut interest rates. (Jinshi)

Interest rate futures continue to price in bets on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with expectations of a rate cut at each remaining meeting in 2024.

Odaily Odaily News CME Federal Reserve Observation Data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 89.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 10.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 89.6%.

Odaily Odaily reported that Dudley, former chairman of the New York Federal Reserve, wrote that he has long been in the camp of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time", believing that short-term interest rates must be kept at or above the current level to control inflation. But changes in circumstances have changed his mind. He now believes that the Fed should cut interest rates, preferably starting at the interest rate meeting next week.

Former New York Fed President: The Fed should cut interest rates immediately

Odaily Odaily News: Antje Praefcke, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report that the upcoming U.S. economic data may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will enter a rapid rate cut cycle in the coming months, but this is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the dollar. The first rate cut in September is now almost fully digested by the market, and the market believes that there is a high probability of two more rate cuts before the end of the year. If the U.S. second-quarter economic growth data released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditure index released on Friday support these expectations, the dollar's reaction will be suppressed. Praefcke said: "However, if these data cast a shadow on market expectations, I expect (the dollar) to have a more obvious trend." (Jinshi)