There are two reasons why Bitcoin has not been able to reach 70,000 this time: First, this wave of rise is driven by emotions, and the source of emotions is that Trump’s presidency is not stable! Second, the US government sorted out its wallet at a critical moment last night, and the market, which had just started to improve, was frightened again.
Last night, Bitcoin hit $70,000 and then fell back, indicating that this wave of rise was still due to the emotional fluctuations caused by Trump's speech, but the big players and the main players did not make up their minds to rush up. I think there are two reasons why there was no breakthrough this time. First, although Trump's words sounded good, he is not yet in a stable position to win. From the latest forecast of Polymarket, it can be seen that Trump's winning rate dropped by 3 percentage points last night, and now it is only 57%, while his opponent Harris's winning rate rose by 3 percentage points, and now it is 39%. The gap between the two sides is not big. In another market prediction pool, Harris's winning rate is also rising, now 62%, while Trump's is only 36%. The funds in these two pools are bought with real money. Overall, although Trump has an advantage, Harris's momentum is also rising, so it is not a good time for the main funds to start now. It may take until the trend becomes clearer one month before the election before they act. The second reason is that the US government suddenly transferred 30,000 bitcoins last night, equivalent to more than 2 billion US dollars, which scared the market. Although Bloomberg's ETF analyst explained that this might just be wallet consolidation, the market was still spooked, so a breakout of $70,000 at this time is inappropriate.
Although Bitcoin failed to rise last night and pulled back, Ethereum performed well because Grayscale ETHE's selling volume was halved, which brought some surprises to the market. I said before that at the rate of selling $400 million per day, half of it would be sold in 10 days. Now ETHE has only sold $210 million, and the overall ETF net outflow fell below $100 million for the first time, only 98 million. This means that the selling time may be extended, but it also relieves the pressure on Ethereum. The ETH/BTC exchange rate returned to 0.05 last night because of this good news. The price of Ethereum was led by Bitcoin to fall below $3,300, but it quickly rebounded to around $3,350, and its trend was much stronger than that of BTC.
From a macro perspective, there are many important market events this week, including the central bank decisions of the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The United States is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, but the market has high expectations for the Fed to be dovish at this meeting. Fed spokesman Nick said in advance that a rate cut in September is almost certain, because there seems to be enough evidence of falling inflation. Now the Fed is more worried about unemployment, so there is a high probability that interest rates will be cut in September. However, since the market has already factored this expectation into the price, if Powell does not dove, it will have a negative impact on the market, and there is indeed a certain probability that he will not dove, because there are two inflation reports and two non-agricultural reports to be released before the September FOMC meeting, and these data may bring changes. In addition, there is also the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting in August, which will have an impact on the market every time, so if the Fed decides to cut interest rates in September, the best time to announce it is also at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Therefore, the Fed may not let go at the FOMC meeting on Thursday morning, which will definitely be a blow to the market in the short term. In addition, Japan may raise interest rates, which will also have a certain negative impact on the market. There are still many technology giants to release financial reports this week, and US technology stocks have not stopped falling, so the market is also paying close attention to financial reports.
In the Altcoin market, after SOL failed to hit the $200 mark last night, it was also brought down by Bitcoin, and the SOL/BTC exchange rate also fell. The market saw a phenomenon that SOL underperformed ETH. However, despite the pullback, the data on the SOL chain is still strong. The 24-hour revenue of the Pump platform exceeded the revenue of the entire Ethereum chain, and the weekly transaction fees and MEV bribery costs on the SOL chain also exceeded Ethereum. In addition, the SEC has amended its lawsuit against Binance and no longer regards tokens such as SOL as securities, so that even if the current SEC chairman does not step down, the SOL ETF has a chance to pass. Other Altcoin basically follow the market, BCH and BSV are still strong, and today the tokens on the Binance watch list have performed well, such as FOR, CVX, and CVP, which have all increased by about 20%, and many other watch list projects have also increased by more than 5%. I personally think that the pull of these projects is actually the project party's self-rescue, because the watch list projects are facing the risk of being delisted, and the most valuable thing about these projects is the shell on Binance, so in order not to be delisted, they can only force the pull. Of course, there are also some external funds and project parties who want to go public through backdoor listing on Binance, so there are opportunities in risks. The watch list has become a good target for secondary investment. You can buy a few with a small amount of money and wait for the rise, but because there is indeed a risk of delisting, remember not to fight to the end.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
If you want to know more about the secret of wealth or have any questions, please follow the official account: Crypto Conan
