Odaily星球日报讯 PGIM 首席美国经济学家波切利表示，由于过去几个月周期性招聘放缓，美国的注意力已经从通胀转向了劳动力市场的放松，这使得美联储得以在 9 月份开始降息。预计美联储将在今夜的会议上宣布 9 月份降息。在 12 月的会议上可能会再次降息，而 11 月降息的可能性也不容忽视。预计到 2025 年底，美联储将累计降息约 150 个基点。（金十）

PGIM：美联储预计到2025年底将累计降息约150个基点

Odaily Odaily News: PGIM Chief U.S. Economist Bocelli said that due to the slowdown in cyclical hiring in the past few months, the U.S. focus has shifted from inflation to the easing of the labor market, which has enabled the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a September rate cut at tonight&#39;s meeting. There may be another rate cut at the December meeting, and the possibility of a rate cut in November cannot be ignored. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve will have cut interest rates by a cumulative 150 basis points. (Jinshi)

PGIM: The Federal Reserve is expected to cumulatively cut interest rates by about 150 basis points by the end of 2025.

Source: Wind Information
The market has already fully priced in the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, but a big question at the FOMC meeting on July 30-31 is: How clear a signal will the FOMC send?
Economists such as Anna WON'T believe that the communication at the July meeting will only provide a preliminary hint of a rate cut in September, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will point out that "if the data develops as we expect," there may be a rate cut. Economists believe that the main reason for the hesitation is that there is a lot of data to be released before the FOMC meeting on September 17-18 - there are two more...

The Federal Reserve's July meeting may disappoint the dovish camp. Powell hinted at a rate cut in September.

Table of Contents
- The Federal Reserve's terminal interest rate in 2025 will drop to 3.25% - 3.5%
- The rise in the U.S. unemployment rate sounds the alarm for an economic recession
- Will the interest rate cut in September successfully achieve a soft landing?
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Taiwan time on Thursday (8/1). The market generally expects that the July interest rate will remain unchanged in the range of 5.25% - 5.5% again. Nick Timiraos, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, who is known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve", also wrote an article this week analyzing that officials are expected to...

Citigroup: The Federal Reserve will begin a series of 8 consecutive rate cuts starting in September, with a target interest rate of 3.25-3.5% by 2025.

David SOL, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, stated in an interview this Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may have one or two rate cuts later this year, which is different from his prediction two months ago that there would be no rate cuts in 2024. Two months ago, SOL said at an event at Boston College: "I still maintain the expectation of zero rate cuts this year. I believe we are prepared to handle more severe inflation."