Original: Liu Jiaolian
Overnight, BTC finally broke through 63k and tested MA30 before rebounding and pulling back to 64k. In July, it took a cosine curve. After opening at 62k, it first dived to 53k, then swooped into the sky, drew a beautiful arc, stepped back and pulled up twice, approaching 70k, and closed at 66k. On the first day of August, it dived, fell more than 5% within the day, flew close to MA30, and then pulled up again, breaking away from the 62k "ground",...
This roller coaster-like market really made the hearts of retail investors sitting on the roller coaster jump out of their throats. In the end, they couldn't even shout, and could only hold the shaking handles tightly with both hands in horror, watching the guys on the car who didn't fasten their seat belts were constantly thrown into the air, crashing into the tracks, pillars, trees and rocks, and falling to their deaths with their brains splattered and blood all over their bodies.
The timid people closed their eyes tightly, and could only hear the whistling sound of the wind around them, as well as the constant screams and groans, their hearts beating so fast that they were about to jump out of their chests.
Old investors took advantage of this discount opportunity to increase their positions. After all, the days of increasing positions below $70,000 are getting closer and closer.
It is said that in July 2024, the whale addresses accumulated 84,000 BTC, which was the most in a single month since 2014.
The opportunity for discounts in July is created by a combination of several unfavorable factors:
1. Liquidation of miners;
2. The German government cleared its warehouse;
3. Mt.Gox compensation.
Signs on the chain indicate that the liquidation of miners has come to an end, and BTC has successfully completed a self-elimination and self-revolution of its core forces, welcoming a new journey in a healthier and more powerful state; the German government has completed its liquidation and the selling pressure has been completely absorbed; Mt.Gox's compensation progress has been completed by 70%, and the subsequent selling pressure will become smaller and smaller.
When all the bad news is out, only good news remains ahead.
At the end of this round of bear market and the beginning of the bull market, in the range of $60,000 to $70,000, Mt. Gox, the biggest "gray rhino" time bomb in the history of BTC's first 15 years of development, was completely dismantled. This is definitely a huge boon to BTC's unimpeded development in the next 15 years.
You know, every time the price of BTC increases 10 times, the explosive power of this time bomb will increase 10 times. If you can dismantle it at $60,000, don't wait until $600,000 to dismantle it.
Looking ahead, the following positive factors will drive BTC to embark on a new journey in the next 15 years:
1. The Federal Reserve is about to start a new round of monetary easing cycle;
Second, crypto ETFs are more widely accepted, continue to expand in scale, and gain favor from more institutions and young investors;
3. BTC will inevitably enter the political agenda of major countries in the world;
4. As BIS allows central banks around the world to include crypto assets in their balance sheets in 2025, G20 countries are beginning to compete to accept BTC as a national strategic reserve;
5. BTC will attempt to complete a phase change, a leap from SoV (store of value) to MoE (medium of exchange).
In the past two years, I have repeatedly seen some so-called KOLs talking about the so-called BTC "disappearing dividend theory" - the general meaning is that BTC has been developing for 15 years, and it has come to an end. It has risen from worthless to 70,000 US dollars, and has also been listed on the world's top US stock market ETF. There will be no greater room for development in the future, and so on.
In fact, let Jiaolian translate it for you. The implicit and implicit meaning of these words is to advise you, a confused newbie and a silly leek, not to buy BTC. What should you do if you want to get rich? Of course, you should buy the XXX Altcoin recommended by the KOL who gave you this high-sounding speech.
If you believe, you will be fooled. If you buy, you will be cut. The more you believe, the more you will be fooled. The more you buy, the greater the loss.
Of course, the more you lose, the more money the KOL who recommended you to buy XXX Altcoin will make. After all, the formula of a zero-sum game is not unusual in mathematics:
Total income of sickle = total loss of all fools
The teaching chain must firmly say that the so-called "disappearing dividend theory" of BTC must be nonsense or lies. People who say this are either fools, that is stupid, or liars, that is bad. In other words, either their IQ is so low that they cannot understand the phase transition of BTC, or their IQ is very high, but they want to do bad things and harvest the money in your pocket. Whether they are stupid or bad, the only correct thing to do is not to listen to them, not to believe them, and to stay away from them as soon as possible.
Jiaolian believes that because BTC will continue to change phases, the development dividends of BTC will continue to come in waves during its growth period of more than 130 years (2009-2140), with each wave higher than the last, and each wave higher than the last, stretching endlessly and inexhaustibly.
To think that the end of BTC development is when it becomes electronic gold and value storage, or even that the US stock ETF is the end of BTC’s career, and to regard being accepted by traditional finance as the highest honor, and to stop continuing the revolution and struggle, is to look at the problem from a static and mechanical perspective, rather than a dynamic and developmental perspective. The conclusion drawn from this is bound to be divorced from the objective laws of historical development and the truth of the matter.
In the past few years, especially before 2018, there was another voice that believed that BTC should not enter the SoV development stage first, but advocated directly realizing the vision of payment currency as stated in the first sentence of the first paragraph of the first chapter of Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper, allowing BTC to directly enter the development stage of payment tools, completely ignoring the legal conflicts in compliance and the paradox of how there can be payment without acceptance in logic, and competing head-on with today's traditional Internet micropayments. This is obviously a serious mistake of opportunism and adventurism.
Therefore, we also see that it is not easy to scientifically explore the internal laws and development direction of new things that have never been seen in history and are developing rapidly, and to have a correct understanding and accurate grasp of them. In this process of cognition and practice, there are always some people who make mistakes of right-wing conservatism, and there are always others who make mistakes of left-wing opportunism.
The success of crypto investment is based on the success of the crypto business. It is impossible for the BTC business to fail while the investment of individual investors is successful. Therefore, in order to achieve the success of personal investment, we must resolutely fight against all kinds of wrong ideas, conduct serious research and criticism, recognize which road to take for the crypto business to succeed, and unswervingly and persistently take the right road.
