Odaily星球日报讯 Wealth Alliance 总裁兼董事总经理 Eric Diton 表示，“我认为美联储本周就该降息 25 个基点，但显然它错过了。然后我们看到，初请失业金人数上升，ISM 制造业 PMI 指数连续第四个月表现不佳。鲍威尔说他依赖数据，周五的非农就业数据表现如何将是关键。如果我们看到一个非常疲弱的数据，他很可能会在 9 月份降息 50 个基点。另一个问题是联邦债务，我们有 35 万亿美元的债务。我们为这些债务支付的利息现在大约是我们联邦支出的 17%。所以，利息现在正在吸走我们可以用来做决策的钱。”（金十）

机构：今晚非农若表现疲软，美联储很可能在9月降息50个基点

Odaily Odaily News, Wealth Alliance President and Managing Director Eric Diton said, &quot;I thought the Fed should have cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but obviously it missed it. Then we saw that the number of initial jobless claims rose and the ISM manufacturing PMI index underperformed for the fourth consecutive month. Powell said he relies on data, and how Friday&#39;s non-farm payrolls perform will be key. If we see a very weak data, he will most likely cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Another problem is the federal debt. We have $35 trillion in debt. The interest we pay on these debts is now about 17% of our federal spending. So, the interest is now sucking away the money we can use to make decisions.&quot; (Jinshi)

Institutions: If the non-farm payrolls perform weakly tonight, the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

According to the "Fed Watch" by CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 12.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.2%. (Gold Ten)

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed standing pat tonight is 96.9%.

According to the report by 10x Research, although the Federal Reserve's statement maintained flexibility and did not explicitly state that it would cut interest rates in September, Chairman Powell's comments during the subsequent Q&A session implied the possibility of a rate cut, which depends on the expected decline in inflation. Previously, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve would only begin cutting interest rates if it was clear enough that multiple rate cuts were needed. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates in September, there may be several more rate cuts, providing substantial stimulus to the financial markets, as long as the economy remains stable.

According to their model, the inflation report to be released on August 14 is expected to show that the inflation rate has fallen below 3.0%. From August to October, the market is entering a period where year-over-year inflation is more favorable.

Furthermore, the price of gold has reached a new historical high, which may be a positive signal for Bitcoin.

10x Research: The inflation report to be released on August 14 will show that the inflation rate will drop below 3.0%.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that this meeting did not provide a clear signal that a rate cut will happen in September, but the first half of the statement saw some very meaningful changes: the dual mandate is back, and inflation has shifted from being "elevated" to being "somewhat elevated". (Jinshi)