This is the most brutal bull market that retail investors have ever experienced. Altcoin have generally fallen sharply, and many have returned to the lowest point of the bear market. This situation has never occurred in any previous bull market.
As can be seen in the chart below, the number of losing trading accounts, calculated by the UTXO account model, has been rising during the local lows of Bitcoin during this period, reaching extreme levels at the bottom of the bear market cycle, black swan events, and major bullish pivot points. Similar to the situation in September 2023, similar to the price action after the COVID-19 black swan event in 2020, we are in the stage of a big rally.
A few days ago, Cathie Wood said that we are in the middle of the bull market and will enter the final stage, which is when prices will rise rapidly. This is consistent with my previous view, so there is nothing to do except wait.
Investors holding Altcoin are now generally emotionally numb and indifferent to any market news, no longer caring about the bull market or the bear market. This sentiment is exactly the same as the bottom area of the big bear market.
The trend of Bitcoin has actually been very good. The price has been rising gradually since 52, and the bottom is constantly rising. The Altcoin have performed very weakly, completely following the trend of Bitcoin. Since everyone has survived until now, it is not worth giving up.
There is a high probability that there will be a release of funds in September this year. Over the years, most of the Altcoin market has started in October, and now we have reached this step again. October is coming, and perhaps the market will start to react in advance in mid-September.
Looking ahead
Brothers, this period is really too hard to endure, even harder than the bear market. The magnitude and time of the callback are only one aspect, what is more difficult is to re-understand the process of the crypto bull market, which is the same for everyone. It can be foreseen that each stage in the future will be new and unprecedented. In the future, we need to be more cautious in market operations and redefine bull and bear markets.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
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