The risk of a hard landing for the US economy is rising, and it is recommended to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time.

Odaily Odaily News: Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that as the possibility of a more severe recession in the United States increases, investors should sell stocks when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time. Hartnett pointed out that the ISM manufacturing index seems to be highly correlated with non-farm payrolls in terms of direction. The only time the index was in a contraction zone for a long time while non-farm payrolls maintained positive growth was between 1984 and 1986. At the same time, strategists said that the extent to which risk assets have preemptively digested the Fed's rate cuts in 2024 has reached its limit, and the S&P 500 has risen 32% in the past 9 months. In contrast, the average increase before the Fed's first 12 rate cuts since 1970 was only 2%. (Jinshi)