Odaily星球日报讯 美国非农就业数据弱于预期，足以促使降息幅度扩大。市场目前预计，欧洲央行在 9 月会议上降息 50 个基点的可能性为 20%，而 10 月降息 25 个基点的可能性为 70%。目前互换合约显示，市场预期美联储将多次降息 50 个基点，9 月降息 50 个基点的可能性为 75%，11 月降息 50 个基点的可能性为 60%，12 月降息 50 个基点的可能性为 15-20%。（金十）

非农数据增强对美联储和欧洲央行一次性降息50个基点的预期

Odaily Odaily News: US non-farm payrolls data was weaker than expected, enough to prompt a larger rate cut. The market currently expects that the European Central Bank has a 20% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, and a 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October. Current swap contracts show that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points multiple times, with a 75% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September, a 60% chance of a 50 basis point cut in November, and a 15-20% chance of a 50 basis point cut in December. (Jinshi)

The non-farm data strengthens the expectation of a one-time 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

According to market information, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate swap market has fully priced in 3 rate cuts by the end of the year. (Gold Ten)

The US Federal Reserve's interest rate swap market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the end of the year.

Odaily Odaily reported that ECB board member Stournaras said that he still expects two interest rate cuts in 2024, and the decision in September will depend on the data. The risk of inflation falling below 2% in the medium term is increasing. (Jinshi)

European Central Bank Governing Council member Stournaras: We still expect two rate cuts in 2024.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that the Bank of England announced a 25-basis-point rate cut on the evening of August 1st Beijing time, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 5.25% to 5%. This is the first rate cut by the Bank of England since March 2020, in line with market expectations.