Odaily星球日报讯 2025 年 FOMC 票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比接受彭博电视台采访表示，不要对一个月的数据做出过度反应，法律规定美联储必须对高失业率作出回应，如果失业率上升到 4.1%以上，美联储就必须对这种情况做出反应，决定降息幅度或是否采取行动的将是经济状况。（金十）

美联储古尔斯比：法律规定美联储必须对高失业率作出回应

Odaily Odaily News: Goolsbee, 2025 FOMC voting member and president of the Chicago Fed, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that one should not overreact to one month&#39;s data. The law requires the Fed to respond to high unemployment rates. If the unemployment rate rises above 4.1%, the Fed must respond to this situation. It will be the economic situation that determines the extent of the interest rate cut or whether to take action. (Jinshi)

The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The law requires the Federal Reserve to respond to high unemployment.

Source: Zhou Ziheng

Although the Federal Reserve recognizes that the US economy is "cooling down," the unemployment rate is starting to rise, and economic activity is weakening, the Federal Reserve did not lower the policy interest rate from the current high level of 5.25-5.5% at its meeting at the end of July.

The problem facing the Federal Reserve, as always, is to strike a balance between maintaining high borrowing costs to curb inflation and high borrowing costs leading to reduced household spending, reduced corporate investment, and reduced employment.

Like other central banks in major economies, the Federal Reserve has set a target inflation rate of 2% per year (which is meaningless); the difference is that the Federal Reserve has a "dual mandate," which is to strive to maintain full employment while keeping inflation low.

The Federal Reserve's defeat is already decided?

PANews reported on August 2 that, according to Golden Ten, Vasif Latif, President and Chief Investment Officer of Sarmaya Partners, commented on the US non-farm payrolls in July, saying this is what a growth panic looks like. The market is now realizing that the economy is indeed slowing down. The unemployment rate is a self-correlated function number, so once it starts to move in a certain direction, it usually continues to move in that direction. I think the market will also quickly realize that the Fed not cutting rates may be a mistake. Historically, the Fed has tended to wait longer and ultimately push the economy into a slower growth area. It is clear that they rely on data, and now that the data is out, they may do what they need to do in September, but September is a bit far away for the market, which is currently in a state of panic. In this environment, bond prices are expected to rise due to factors such as economic slowdown and investors' shift to high-quality assets.

In addition, Melissa Brown, Managing Director of the AR Application Research Division at Simcorp, said that the actual non-farm data was a bit shocking compared to expectations, much lower than expected, but still positive. This is not the lowest level we have seen. Employment growth may be low enough to trigger the Fed to take action at the next meeting, but not low enough to show signs of recession. The number of unemployed is higher than expected and higher than it has been for some time. This is a bit concerning, but still relatively low. There is still a lot of data to be released between now and the next meeting. A 50-basis-point rate cut is possible, but given the Fed's cautious stance, the likelihood is low. This will depend on the data in the coming weeks. Hourly wages were slightly lower, which means the next inflation report will be very important, as it reflects the overall comparison between inflation and income growth.

Analysis: The U.S. unemployment rate is likely to continue rising, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September was too late.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos revealed that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Wednesday that Fed officials do not want to start with a 50 basis point rate cut, but he said that "a more severe recession... is something we would want to respond to." U.S. Senator Warren posted on X urging Powell to cut rates "now." (Jinshi)