Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”数据，美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 78%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 22%。美联储到 11 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 3.7%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 75.3%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 21%。

CME美联储观察：美联储9月降息50个基点的概率为22%

According to CME&#39;s &quot;Odaily Watch&quot; data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 3.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 75.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 21%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September is 22%.

According to market information, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate swap market has fully priced in 3 rate cuts by the end of the year. (Gold Ten)

The US Federal Reserve's interest rate swap market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the end of the year.

According to the Odaily Planet Daily report, institutional forecast models show that the expansion pace of the US labor market may slow down, which could imply an overall cooling trend. However, if today's non-farm employment report exceeds expectations, concerns about a hard landing may recede, and the sudden risk aversion sentiment in the market may also ease.

The forecast model shows that the US non-farm employment in July will grow moderately from 206,000 in June to 231,000, higher than the widely expected 175,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in the coming months, and the possibility of a significant rate cut this year is increasing. Nevertheless, the US economy has shown signs of slowing down, but there has been no major disruption. If this situation continues, the sell-off in the stock market may be somewhat excessive, and the bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut may be slightly relaxed. (Gold Ten)

Institutional analysis: The Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate cut may help ease the situation.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: In 2025, FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Goolsbee stated that US Federal Reserve policymakers expect to make multiple rate cuts within the next year, which is no secret, and when conditions allow for rate cuts, they typically do not just cut rates once. (Jinshi)