Citic Securities: The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 100-125 basis points in three meetings this year.

Odaily Odaily News: Industrial Securities released a commentary on the US July non-farm payrolls. The team believes that the conditions for interest rate cuts are met, and the fermentation of downward risks in the job market has further heated up market expectations for interest rate cuts. The market has upgraded from trading economic cooling to trading recession, but the observation of the possibility of recession has not ended, so be wary of overdraft trading. After the data was released, stocks fell and bonds rose. The expected probability of a single 50 basis point interest rate cut in September was over 70%. The market expected that the total interest rate cuts in the three meetings this year would be between 100-125bp, and major asset classes showed recession trading characteristics. However, the observation of the possibility of recession has not ended, and the current amount of data is not enough to judge whether the economy will actually fall into recession. The July CPI, August non-farm payrolls, and August CPI before the September meeting will further confirm whether the risk of recession will escalate and whether the preventive interest rate cut will be successful, thereby judging whether there will be a "big step" interest rate cut in the future. (Jinshi)