Analysis: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut can reduce the likelihood of a recession, but it cannot reduce it to zero.

Odaily Odaily News TS Lombard American economist Steven Blit said that if the Federal Reserve does not act soon, people will look for signs that the economy is heading for a recession rather than indicators of a recession itself. The continuous emergence of weak data is not a felony that is not conducive to growth, but it will cause problems. If the Fed stagnates, or sits on the sidelines waiting for data to push, they will repeat the same mistakes, and the probability of entering a recession later this year will climb to 75%. Given that the Fed is expected to soon signal a 50 basis point rate cut in September, the actual probability is even smaller. By the end of the year, they may cut interest rates by 100 basis points. If the Fed takes action, the probability of a recession will be lower, but not zero. (Jinshi)