Odaily星球日报讯 “末日博士”经济学家鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）认为，市场认为美国经济正走向硬着陆、美联储将大幅降息的定价过于悲观。他说：“有一些重要证据表明经济有所放缓，但我不认为数据表明很快就会硬着陆。实际上经济中有一些强劲的因素。”鲁比尼发表此番言论之际，市场预计美联储将在年底前降息约 100 个基点。虽然市场对经济衰退感到紧张，但他指出，过去类似的判断都是错误的。“我认为，在过去三次经济衰退中，股市预测了其中的十次。市场经常对经济形势和美联储的行动判断失误。”（金十）

“末日博士”Roubini：没有看到美国经济硬着陆或大幅降息的迹象

Odaily Odaily News: &quot;Dr. Doom&quot; economist Nouriel Roubini believes that the market&#39;s pricing that the US economy is heading for a hard landing and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply is too pessimistic. He said: &quot;There is some important evidence that the economy has slowed down, but I don&#39;t think the data shows that there will be a hard landing soon. There are actually some strong factors in the economy.&quot; Roubini made these remarks when the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 100 basis points before the end of the year. Although the market is nervous about the recession, he pointed out that similar judgments in the past have been wrong. &quot;I think the stock market has predicted ten of the past three recessions. The market often misjudges the economic situation and the actions of the Federal Reserve.&quot; (Jinshi)

"Doomsday Doctor" Roubini: There are no signs of a hard landing or a significant interest rate cut in the US economy.

According to a report by the Merrill Lynch Securities brokerage team, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion, but there is no need for aggressive rate cuts that would lead to a significant economic recession. The rise in the unemployment rate in July was almost entirely due to temporary layoffs, indicating that the weakness is only temporary. The employment rate in the August report may rebound, and the unemployment rate may decline. They said: "Without layoffs, the United States will not experience an economic recession, and the layoff rate is still extremely low." Merrill Lynch believes that the rate cut cycle will begin in September, with a 25-basis-point cut each quarter until the terminal rate reaches 3.25%-3.5% in mid-2026. "A 50-basis-point or more aggressive rate cut is done in an emergency, and action is taken during the interval between meetings, but we are not at that stage yet."

Bank of America: The Federal Reserve currently has no need to cut interest rates on the scale of an economic recession.

According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon expects the Federal Reserve to avoid emergency rate cuts, as he believes the US economy will avoid a recession. Solomon said in an interview: "I don't expect to see any progress before September. The economy will develop steadily and may not experience a recession." Solomon stated, "Based on the current economic data and the information released by the Federal Reserve, I believe there may be one or two rate cuts in the fall of this year."

Goldman Sachs CEO: Expects the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates urgently, and may cut interest rates 1-2 times in the fall.

According to Odaily, Deutsche Bank stated that after the recent market turmoil, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to endorse the expectation that it may cut interest rates more aggressively than previously expected at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, which could boost the US dollar. Currency analyst Antje Praefcke said in a report that unless the CPI inflation data on August 14 exceeds expectations, or the market experiences another major panic, Fed officials may try to remain calm at the symposium on August 22-24 and wait for the next labor market report in September, "which would mean that the current interest rate cut expectations may have to be revised, and the US dollar may rise a bit further."