Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通新任市场策略主管 Dubravko Lakos-Bujas 在首份报告中写道，美股最近的溃败冲散了市场中的一些泡沫，但如果经济增长继续减速、美联储在货币政策宽松方面“没有表现出紧迫性”，那么持仓和估值依然面临风险。Lakos-Bujas 向客户表示，“股票不再是单向的上行交易，而愈发是有关增长下行风险、美联储降息时机、头寸拥挤、估值高昂、大选和地缘政治不确定性加剧展开的双方辩论。”（财联社）

摩根大通新任首席市场策略师：美联储若不抓紧降息 美股将面临风险

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase&#39;s new head of market strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in his first report that the recent collapse of U.S. stocks has dissipated some bubbles in the market, but if economic growth continues to slow and the Federal Reserve &quot;does not show urgency&quot; in easing monetary policy, then positions and valuations are still at risk. Lakos-Bujas told clients that &quot;stocks are no longer a one-way upside trade, but more of a two-way debate about downside risks to growth, the timing of the Fed&#39;s rate cuts, crowded positions, high valuations, and increased uncertainty in the election and geopolitics.&quot; (Cailian News)

Morgan Stanley's new chief market strategist: If the Federal Reserve does not act quickly to cut interest rates, the US stock market will face risks.

Odaily reports that JPMorgan Chase now believes the likelihood of the US economy falling into recession by the end of this year is 35%, higher than the 25% at the beginning of last month. In a report to clients on Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase economists led by Bruce KAS wrote that US news "suggests that labor demand is weakening more sharply than expected, with preliminary signs of layoffs." The team maintained a 45% chance of the economy falling into recession in the second half of 2025. "We have moderately increased our assessment of the risk of economic recession, while our adjustment to the interest rate outlook is greater," KAS and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan Chase now believes there is only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates high in the long term, compared to a 50% chance predicted just two months ago. As inflationary pressures in the US decline, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.

Morgan Chase has raised the probability of the US economy falling into recession by the end of the year to 35%.

Due to concerns about an economic recession triggered by the US unemployment rate, the Bank of Japan's interest rate cut, and the turbulent geopolitical situation in the Middle East, global capital markets experienced severe volatility on Monday (5th). The VIX fear index recorded its largest increase since 1990.

However, analysts on Wall Street have stated that although the risk of an economic recession has increased, the public's reaction may be somewhat exaggerated. Economist Nouriel Roubini, known as the "Dr. Doom," has recently revised his previously pessimistic outlook and stated in an interview that the expectation of a hard economic landing is overly pessimistic.

The doomsday doctor this time does not look bearish: the market is overly pessimistic, and the US economy will not have a hard landing in the short term.

According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon expects the Federal Reserve to avoid emergency rate cuts, as he believes the US economy will avoid a recession. Solomon said in an interview: "I don't expect to see any progress before September. The economy will develop steadily and may not experience a recession." Solomon stated, "Based on the current economic data and the information released by the Federal Reserve, I believe there may be one or two rate cuts in the fall of this year."