JP Morgan analysts believe that the recent decline is the largest sell-off since the collapse of FTX, and retail investors seem to be the main force in the sell-off. They also mentioned that most of the existing rising catalysts have been digested by the market, and they are not optimistic about the market outlook.
( JP Morgan: Cryptocurrencies will rebound “temporarily” in August )
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ToggleJP Morgan: There are no upside catalysts in the market
CoinDesk quoted JPMorgan Chase's latest report as pointing out that the positive factors driving the increase in crypto market prices have been digested by the market. Coupled with the positioning of the Bitcoin futures market and the potential recession of the macro economy, JPMorgan Chase is more cautious about digital assets.
Analysts said:
Most of the rising catalysts driving BTC and crypto markets have been priced in, with this week seeing the biggest sell-off since the 2022 FTX crash, largely triggered by ripple effects in traditional financial markets, with Bitcoin down more than 15% and the current The sell-off was mainly driven by retail investors, while traders also exacerbated market volatility due to operations such as opening positions and establishing short positions.
Are institutional investors key?
The JP Morgan analysis team pointed out that there are still several factors that may make institutional investors optimistic about Bitcoin and the crypto market, including Morgan Stanley starting to allow wealth advisors to provide crypto investments to users, bankruptcy liquidation is about to end, and both parties in the United States are Favorable regulatory measures may be introduced, etc.
( Mt. Gox begins paying off debt in Bitcoin BTC and Bitcoin Cash BCH )
However, the analysis team still questions that the above potential benefits seem to be reflected in the current price. Analysts currently estimate that the average production cost of Bitcoin is about $49,000, and any price below this will put pressure on miners and further affect Bitcoin prices.
However, the JPMorgan Chase report cited by The Block (should be a report from the same period) is slightly more optimistic. Analysts believe that Bitcoin futures have a higher premium than spot prices , showing that futures investors are confident. In addition, FTX’s cash claims for creditors may be Further boosting demand in the crypto market.
According to CoinMarketCap , Bitcoin did fall to $48,934 on August 5 and has now recovered to $60,923, an increase of approximately 24.5%.
