BTC encountered resistance in the repair process on Friday. Although it approached 63k during the day, it failed to hold the 60k mark. Fortunately, it continued to repair upward today, regained the 60k mark, and stood at the door of 61k.
Yesterday [ “8.9 Teaching Chain Internal Reference: Russia Legalizes Crypto Mining!” ] mentioned that netizen PlanB The post said that the problem with this cycle is that the bull run started too early. Normally, the BTC halving occurs in the accumulation phase, but the 2024 halving occurs in the bull run phase. People have been acting in advance, but the market is not ready to rise.
This netizen PlanB is the anonymous analyst PlanB who was once deified during the bull market in 2021 with "three tests and three answers", but then fell from the altar. When he was "three tests and three answers", Jiaolian published an article on October 15, 2021, "There is no second half at the end of the year" , inferring that "when PlanB is deified with three tests and everyone is superstitious, that is the day when his prediction fails."
At that time, PlanB predicted 98k in November 2021 , 137k in December. In hindsight, 69k in November was already the local high point of that round of bull market.
As early as December 20, 2020, in the article "Three Predictions" , Jiaolian speculated that the high point of the bull market in 2021 would be a conservative value of 50,000 to 100,000 US dollars, a medium value of 150,000 US dollars, and an aggressive value of 200,000 to 300,000 US dollars. In fact, it has only just reached the middle of the conservative range. The power law has experienced a real recession.
The last bull market also broke a "rule" - the bear market will not break the previous high. That is, the lowest point of each bear market will not fall below the highest point of the previous bull market. However, in the second half of 2022, BTC fell below the 2017 high of $20,000 several times. Especially in November and December 2021, BTC effectively fell below $20,000 and crawled almost below $18k and in the 16-17k range for 2 months, drawing a " Death Valley " on the graph. ”.
Some rules, which were thought to be broken, were not broken at all. For example, the progress of the bull market is completely time-limited, not price-limited. When the time comes, the bull market ends. When the time comes, the bear market bottoms out. This is actually quite incredible from a logical point of view. At the end of 2021, BTC only touched 69k, and it did not extend to the beginning of 2022, not to mention the peak in September that was once proposed. The bear market in the second half of 2022 also ended precisely at the end of December, and the road to recovery began in 2023. It's just like a clock.
Well, will the rhythm of the bull-bear clock be broken this time? No one can say for sure.
What about the power law decay? Will it continue to decay, or will there be a phase transition? This seemingly simple question is actually difficult to decipher even if one studies it for a lifetime.
If you don't even understand these basic simple questions, and don't know them clearly, and haven't figured them out, it's ridiculous to talk about buy the dips, top-selling, and swing trading. , we can see how much we overestimate our own abilities, and failure is no surprise as the outcome.
Take the cycle rhythm for example. It is not a simple question to accurately and scientifically define when is a bull market and when is a bear market.
Jiaolian also mentioned a definition of a bull market - breaking through the previous high. For example, in March 2024, BTC broke through the 2021 bull market high (previous high) of 69k, so according to this definition, BTC started this round of bull market.
However, if we say that 2021 is a special case of a clipped top, and the superposition of the two tops should be 100,000-150,000 US dollars, does that mean that BTC reaching 70k is not the real start of the bull market, but it will not really start until it breaks through 100k or even 150k?
So it depends on where you draw the line in your mind.
Some people do not look at the height but the direction. An increase is a bull market, and a decrease is a bear market. According to this definition, it is even more ridiculous. If an increase is a bull market, then we can assume that BTC has been in a bull market from the beginning of 2023 until the local high in March 2024.
However, in actual communication, many people really use this unreliable definition when talking about bull and bear. Therefore, from the bottom of "312" in 2020 to the high of 69k in November 2021, this is the bull market of the last cycle. From the high of 69k in November 2021 to the bottom of 16k at the end of 2022, this is the bear market of the last cycle.
When two people are arguing over bulls and bears, it is very likely that they have different definitions of bulls and bears in their minds! It can be seen that these online arguments are almost all pure waste of words and time - a waste of precious time that should be used to make money.
In this way, it is easy to speculate that PlanB said that this round of bull market started early, which is based on his definition of the previous breakthrough high of 69k, that is, early March 2024 as the starting point of this bull market.
Netizen Bejanmin Cowen changed his perspective. He did not simply use price to scale, but used ROI (return on investment) to calculate BTC's ROI from the bottom of the previous cycle to date. See the figure below:
It can be seen that compared with the 2017 cycle (orange) and the 2021 cycle (green), this cycle (red) has been quite stable so far and there is nothing out of the ordinary.
So, will the local peak of this cycle be 100 times the orange one ($1.5 million), 20 times the green one ($300,000), or even lower, 10 times ($150,000)?
