Odaily星球日报讯 交易员 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 于 X 发文表示，当前市场价格走势与 2022 年 3 月或 2023 年 8 月类似。其提醒称，投资者应谨慎选择自己看好的方向。 基于比特币历史价格数据，2022 年 3 月比特币反弹至顶部以下局部高点，随后几个月持续下跌；2023 年 8 月比特币于中旬快速下跌，随后短暂横盘整理后持续上涨直至创下历史新高。

Odaily星球日报讯 交易员 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 于 X 发文表示，当前市场价格走势与 2022 年 3 月或 2023 年 8 月类似。其提醒称，投资者应谨慎选择自己看好的方向。基于比特币历史价格数据，2022 年 3 月比特币反弹至顶部以下局部高点，随后几个月持续下跌；2023 年 8 月比特币于中旬快速下跌，随后短暂横盘整理后持续上涨直至创下历史新高。

交易员Eugene：当前市场走势与2022年3月或2023年8月类似

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted that the current market price trend is similar to March 2022 or August 2023. He reminded investors to be cautious in choosing the direction they are optimistic about. Based on Bitcoin's historical price data, in March 2022, Bitcoin rebounded to a local high below the top, and then continued to decline for several months; in mid-August 2023, Bitcoin fell rapidly, then consolidated briefly before continuing to rise and reaching a new all-time high.

Odaily Odaily News Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio wrote on X that the current market price trend is similar to that in March 2022 or August 2023. He reminded that investors should carefully choose the direction they are optimistic about. Based on Bitcoin&#39;s historical price data, Bitcoin rebounded to a local high below the top in March 2022, and then continued to fall in the following months; in August 2023, Bitcoin fell rapidly in mid-month, and then continued to rise after a brief sideways consolidation until it hit a record high.

Trader Eugene: The current market trend is similar to that of March 2022 or August 2023.

When the US government transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin rally came to an end. The trading range of $60,000 to $70,000 has remained stable, but a significant change in this range is imminent.

BIT Daily Market Briefing 08/12 - A major shift in this range is imminent.

On August 12, Bitfinex released a report stating that last week, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, rising nearly 28% from the recent low of around $49,000, which was the lowest price since February. This rebound has brought BTC back above the critical $60,000 level, after experiencing a significant sell-off in August, with the price dropping 33.32% from the cycle high and all-time high of $73,666. This is the largest correction in the current cycle.

Key indicators, such as the Mayer Multiple (which compares Bitcoin's current price to its 200-day moving average (200DMA)), provide insights into the severity of this correction. During the recent decline, the Mayer Multiple dropped to 0.88, a level not seen since November 2022, indicating that Bitcoin's trading price is significantly below its historical average trend, entering a strongly bearish phase.

On-chain data also highlights the intensity of this sell-off. The short-term holder cost basis (STH cost basis), which represents the average purchase price of recent buyers, is currently at $64,860. The spot price of Bitcoin has recently approached the -1 standard deviation (SD) range below this STH cost basis, which has historically occurred on only about 7.1% of trading days. This reflects the severity of the current market conditions.

The short-term holder MVRV ratio (which compares the current market price to the purchase price of new investors) shows that this group is holding the largest unrealized losses since the 2022 bear market low. Overall, these indicators suggest an increase in bearish sentiment and pressure among short-term investors, which typically occurs at local bottoms.

The US economy continues to show resilience, despite ongoing concerns about potential slowdown, with recent data supporting a more optimistic outlook. Last week, the significant decline in unemployment claims and the steady growth in wholesale inventories provided a solid foundation for economic growth, particularly in the second quarter, when US wholesale inventories played a critical role in the economic expansion.

In the latest news from the crypto space, Harris has emerged as the frontrunner in the 2024 US presidential race, leading Trump by a narrow margin in betting odds and recent polls. As her campaign momentum builds, speculation about her potential crypto currency stance is also increasing, especially as her team has started engaging with industry executives. This engagement suggests that crypto currency policy may become a focus in the coming months, sparking interest and anticipation within the crypto community.

Meanwhile, major financial institutions, such as BlackRock and Nasdaq, have made progress in the digital asset market, recently submitting applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch options trading on BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF. This move follows the SEC's approval of several well-known companies to launch Ethereum-linked ETFs, marking a significant expansion of digital asset investment options. As these developments unfold, the SEC continues to play a crucial role in shaping the crypto currency landscape, as evidenced by its recent decision to delay the approval of Hashdex's proposed ETF, which aims to hold physical Bitcoin and Ethereum, until September 30, 2024, reflecting the SEC's cautious approach in carefully evaluating the impact of new digital asset products on the market.

Bitfinex reported: Bitcoin began to recover after experiencing the largest correction of the current cycle this week.

According to the trading platform Megabit, in the recent few hours, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated downward, currently falling below $58,000 and rebounding slightly, temporarily reported at $58,092, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 5%. Megabit Research Institute analyst stated that on August 6th, the global financial market experienced violent fluctuations, Bitcoin was oversold to $49,000 and then rebounded quickly, and fluctuated in the $60,000 range, but did not break through the pressure zone above $63,000, and demand for correction appeared, but the possibility of a sharp drop in the short term is not high, and it may fluctuate and consolidate in the $55,000-$56,000 range, and then choose a direction again. Although the voices of economic recession are endless, in the long run, Bitcoin can serve as a "safe-haven asset", while Altcoins will be severely affected by the decline in liquidity and risk appetite, so investors may be more inclined to transfer funds from high-risk assets such as low-market-value cryptocurrencies to safer investments.

Megabit analyst: Bitcoin has experienced short-term correction in demand, and may fluctuate and consolidate, but it is still a "safe-haven asset" in the long run.