Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 46%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 54%。美联储到 11 月累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 29.6%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 51.2%，累计降息 100 个基点的概率为 19.2%。

美联储9月降息50个基点的概率为46%

According to CME&#39;s &quot;Odaily Watch&quot;, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 46%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 54%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 29.6%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 51.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 46%.

According to a report by Jane Foley, a foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and again by the end of the year. The analyst stated: "From a six-month perspective, we expect the USD/JPY to fall to 142, which would broadly coincide with expectations for the timing of the next Bank of Japan rate hike." Rabobank said that due to the possibility of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, while the Federal Reserve should begin cutting rates in September, the Japanese yen is expected to continue its upward trend against the US dollar in the coming months.

The Dutch Cooperative Bank: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and cut rates again before the end of the year.

According to a global survey by Bank of America, despite the turbulence in global financial markets, investors' optimism towards US tech giants and expectations of an economic soft landing have not weakened. The survey polled 189 participants with total assets of $508 billion, and the results show that the expectation of a soft landing has risen from 68% in July to 76%. However, participants' expectations for global growth have declined significantly, with 47% of respondents currently expecting the economy to weaken over the next 12 months. The risk of a US economic recession has replaced geopolitical conflicts as the biggest tail risk. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in the report, "The core optimism about a soft landing and growth in US large-cap growth stocks has not changed. Investors just now believe the Fed needs to cut rates more aggressively to ensure a recession is avoided." Earlier, tech stocks led the US stock market plunge, weighed down by high valuations and concerns that the Fed was acting too slowly in cutting rates to prevent an economic recession.

Investors believe the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates significantly to ensure that a recession does not occur.

The history is too similar, and interest rate cuts are not the fundamental driving force for the rise of the cryptocurrency market.

Author: Nanzi, Odaily Planet Daily
Since Bitcoin broke through its previous all-time high of $69,000 three years ago, it has been fluctuating widely in the range of $50,000 to $70,000 for several consecutive months. After the Bitcoin halving, the grand narrative that can be foreseen is only the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
However, the date of this event is already set in stone. According to CME's Federal Reserve observation data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on September 24 has risen to 100%, with the only difference being a 25 basis point or 50 basis point reduction, and the current probability of the two is about fifty-fifty.