Odaily星球日报讯 美国 CPI 数据发布后，交易员下调美联储降息预期。利率交易员降低了对美联储 9 月会议降息 50 个基点的押注，预计将降息约 33 个基点，而昨日的预期为 37 个基点。 分析师 Chris Anstey 表示，值得注意的是，美国 7 月 CPI 通胀年率目前已降至 3%以下，这是自 2021 年春季通胀首次点燃以来的最低水平。市场的初始波动并不大。美国 2 年期国债收益率目前上涨逾 4 个基点，显示出一些人对通胀数据并未变得更加沉寂感到失望。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 美国 CPI 数据发布后，交易员下调美联储降息预期。利率交易员降低了对美联储 9 月会议降息 50 个基点的押注，预计将降息约 33 个基点，而昨日的预期为 37 个基点。分析师 Chris Anstey 表示，值得注意的是，美国 7 月 CPI 通胀年率目前已降至 3%以下，这是自 2021 年春季通胀首次点燃以来的最低水平。市场的初始波动并不大。美国 2 年期国债收益率目前上涨逾 4 个基点，显示出一些人对通胀数据并未变得更加沉寂感到失望。（金十）

市场消息：美国CPI数据发布后交易员下调美联储降息预期

After the release of the US CPI data, traders have lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Interest rate traders have reduced their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting, and now expect a cut of around 33 basis points, compared to 37 basis points expected yesterday. Analyst Chris Anstey noted that it is worth noting that the US July CPI inflation rate has now fallen below 3%, the lowest level since the inflation was first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility was not too large. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury note is currently up more than 4 basis points, indicating that some are disappointed that the inflation data has not become more subdued.

Odaily Odaily News: After the release of the US CPI data, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed&#39;s rate cut. Interest rate traders reduced their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed&#39;s September meeting, and are expected to cut by about 33 basis points, compared with yesterday&#39;s expectation of 37 basis points. Analyst Chris Anstey said it is worth noting that the US CPI inflation rate in July has now fallen below 3%, the lowest level since inflation first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility was not large. The US 2-year Treasury yield is currently up more than 4 basis points, showing that some people are disappointed that the inflation data has not become more subdued. (Jinshi)

Market News: Traders lower their expectations for a Fed rate cut after US CPI data release

According to the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 50.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 49.5%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September is 49.5%.

The shadow of concerns over a US economic recession has not dissipated, but the Morgan Stanley research team in a report released on Monday continues to stand by its view: it believes the US economy will achieve a soft landing, as the level of inflation continues to decline, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates at the upcoming September policy meeting:

Our economists' basic scenario of a resilient economy achieving a soft landing remains unchanged, and they expect the continued decline in inflation to drive the rate-cutting cycle, starting from the September FOMC meeting, with 3 rate cuts of 25 basis points (1 notch) in 2024.

However, the market may continue to...

Morgan Stanley has set the tone: the US economy has "achieved a soft landing", and the Fed will start cutting rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September.

According to a survey by the New York Fed on consumer expectations, the one-year inflation expectation in July was 2.97%, slightly lower than the previous month's 3.02%, and the median three-year inflation expectation fell sharply by 0.66% to 2.3%, reaching the lowest level since the survey began in June 2013. The New York Fed stated that compared to a year ago, people's perceptions of credit access deteriorated in July, with a higher proportion of households reporting that it is more difficult to obtain credit than a year ago.