As cryptocurrency markets stabilize after a turbulent period , a new analysis warns not to expect a major breakout in Bitcoin prices until the final quarter of the year.
Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Capital said that despite some encouraging signs, the market is likely to remain on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
Bitcoin’s overnight recovery towards the $60,000 mark suggests that BTC has managed to stabilize after last week’s sell-off. Even after BitGo moved $2 billion worth of Mt. Gox BTC on Monday night , Bitcoin edged higher, suggesting that the market may be starting to shake off the potential impact of these transactions on supply.
Ethereum (ETH) also saw positive movement, with the spot ETF rising for two consecutive days and attracting $24.3 million in net inflows on Tuesday .
Markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, driven by a weaker U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
However, QCP Capital noted that while the current environment appears favorable, the major catalyst required for a breakout is lacking .
“Cryptocurrencies appear relatively well supported as ETFs continue to see inflows and BlackRock bought the dip last week,” the firm noted. “However , in the absence of a major catalyst, we do not expect a significant breakout until the fourth quarter.”
In a separate report, 10x Research highlighted the importance of stablecoin inflows to sustain any major rally, noting that Tether recently minted $1 billion in USDT — though mostly for inventory building — while Tether and Circle issued $2.8 billion in USDT last week.
This suggests that institutional capital is gradually re-entering the market, but the momentum is showing signs of weakening.
10x Research also stressed that Bitcoin needs more support for a significant breakout above the $60,000 to $61,000 resistance zone.
“Strong stablecoin inflows will be critical for a sustainable breakout,” they noted, noting that other factors that drove the rally earlier this year, such as widening leverage in futures and derivatives, are now less influential.
