Odaily星球日报讯 PGIM 固定收益首席美国经济学家 Tom Porcelli 表示，目前 5.3%的联邦基金利率与当前低于 3%的消费者价格通胀率相比显得相对较高，即使降息 100 个基点，美联储的政策仍然偏紧缩，政策是根据显著较高的通胀率和显著较低的失业率来校准的，但这些情况已经发生了变化。（金十）

经济学家Tom Porcelli：即使降息100个基点，美联储的政策仍然偏紧缩

Odaily Odaily News: Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income, said that the current federal funds rate of 5.3% is relatively high compared to the current consumer price inflation rate of less than 3%. Even if the interest rate is cut by 100 basis points, the Fed&#39;s policy is still tight. The policy is calibrated based on significantly higher inflation and significantly lower unemployment, but these situations have changed. (Jinshi)

Economist Tom Porcelli: Even with a 100 basis point rate cut, the Fed's policy is still tight

According to the latest data showing the resilience of the US economy, traders have reduced their expectations for the Federal Reserve to make a significant rate cut this year. As a result, US bond yields have surged. Traders have scaled back their bets on the Federal Reserve making a large rate cut in September, and now expect the cut next month to be less than 30 basis points. They now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 92 basis points by the end of 2024, down from more than 100 basis points before the data was released. (Jinshi)

The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by a total of 92 basis points this year

The theme of this year's Jackson Hole Federal Reserve annual meeting is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy", which will discuss the strong momentum of the US economy despite interest rates rising by more than 5 percentage points, and its contempt for numerous recession forecasts. Compared to past interest rate cycles, the impact of monetary policy on the real economy may not be as great, due to both the legacy of the generally low interest rates that existed from 2009 to 2022, and the structural changes in the economy. Millions of homeowners still hold 30-year mortgages with interest rates below 4%, while companies have also taken advantage of the super-low interest rates to refinance and extend loan maturities before the rate hikes. In fact, many of the largest US companies are net interest income earners. (Barron's)

Next week's global central bank annual meeting: The US economy is not afraid of interest rate hikes and ignores recession expectations

BTC had a series of recoveries over the weekend and has now rebounded to around $60,000. The strange drop on Friday, August 16th, seems to be quite consistent with the reasons discussed in the article "Counterintuitive! What factors are affecting the BTC price?" published by the author on that day. Today's ["8.18 Author's Internal Reference: Weak US Dollar, Resilient Bitcoin, Gold Hits New Highs"] seems to confirm the case, which was most likely caused by the US government's sale of 10,000 BTCs, resulting in an abnormal downward spike. From the lowest point of nearly $60,000 to $56,000, it also matches the 5% or so drop mentioned in the previous article and internal reference.