After BTC fell 8.5%, it closed positive for two consecutive weeks. The rebound 0.618 suppression level of 62000 has not been reached. It cannot be said that it has returned to the upward trend. It is still in the process of shock repair. Waiting for the opportunity of the second exploration.
The current idea is very simple, either wait for an opportunity to break a new low for the second time, or wait for the formation of an upward trend on the right side.
Bitcoin continued to fluctuate last week, but from a weekly perspective, the bottom adjustment trend is quite healthy. As long as the daily level does not fall back below 54,000, it will be a relatively healthy adjustment method. If it falls back to 54,000, it means that it will take a longer time to adjust and digest.
The market performed mediocrely over the weekend, but various copycats on Binance $dar $rare $tlm $voxel $sys $dodo etc. all saw significant pull-ups. While participating, everyone should also pay attention to the risks and be sure to learn how to stop profits.
Give yourself more time and wait patiently. The market will soon experience an explosive rally.
The market discussion point has shifted from "whether there will be a rate cut" to "how much the rate cut will be":
This week, there are many macro events. We suggest you be cautious about long and short contracts. It is likely to be another month of sideways movement.
Employment data shows that the US is in recession and the Fed needs to act quickly;
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise downward its estimate of job creation for the period April 2023 to March 2024 by as much as 1 million.
This means that all the “beats” recorded over the past year will be failing grades and the state of the U.S. job market is much worse than the government admits.
Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times starting in September, and believe the market has over-priced in a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting after weaker-than-expected July jobs data.
If the interest rate cut is less than expected, the expected increase in September may not come. The best strategy at this stage is to wait;
At 1:35 a.m. on Wednesday, August 21, 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will deliver a speech.
At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, August 22, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
At 20:30 on August 22 (Thursday), the U.S. Department of Labor will announce the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending August 17.
At 22:00 on August 23 (Friday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting.
The Fed cuts interest rates in September. Will BTC definitely take off? "Buy at the bottom, sell at the top." This is true. From mid-March to now, five months have passed, and the market has been tossing back and forth like a roller coaster. We have endured for so long, and it doesn't matter if we have another month or two. We should keep on gritting our teeth and persevering! Look at the price again. It has fallen to the floor, and it can't fall any further. It is almost the same as the cost price of mining now, which is obviously the bottom area. Institutions, miners, and retail investors, everyone is having a hard time. But don't panic. The crypto is not short of newcomers now, but of a big rise in the market. Once those Altcoin increase several times or dozens of times, and the money-making effect comes together, won't people outside rush to get in? People are like this. The more things rise, the more they want to buy. Even if the price soars, there will still be a constant stream of people taking over. On the contrary, if the price does not move, everyone will disperse when they see that there is no profit. Therefore, we have to do the opposite. When the market is quiet, we will quietly lay out, and when the market is hot, we will withdraw quickly. Speaking of the Fed's rate cut, there is still a month before the meeting on September 17. During this period, the K-line wants to rise sharply? Difficult! Instead, it may bottom out again. Institutional investors are sitting still at this time. They are smart and have to wait until the meeting is about to start before taking action, and then pull up the price in line with the direction of the meeting. Therefore, the market may first pull back or shake, and then start to rise again when it reaches a relatively low point. This is like a child waiting for candy. He knows that there will be candy on September 17, and he is excited for a month. But the closer it gets to that day, the more anxious he is, and he can't wait to eat it right away. But as soon as the candy enters his mouth, the energy is gone. The market is the same. It is lively before the meeting, but it may be as calm as water after the meeting. Let's wait patiently and seize the opportunity to take action!
Don’t guess about the short-term rise and fall of the crypto. In the current market where there is no external capital inflow, everyone is trying to maximize profits by selling high and buying low, but most people simply cannot beat their opponents.
The only thing you can do is to maintain a reasonable position, keep your hands off, and be able to wait.
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