Odaily星球日报讯 一些美联储观察人士预计鲍威尔不会对 9 月做出具体预测，而是提醒大家，美联储现在将更加关注就业问题，因为就业市场正在走弱。美联储肩负着维护价格稳定和充分就业的双重使命。随着失业率上升，后者变得越来越重要，并给美联储施加了更大的行动压力。7 月，美国失业率升至 4.3%，这是自 2021 年 10 月以来的最高水平。 威明顿信托债券投资组合经理 Luke Tilley 预计鲍威尔将讨论自然利率，该指标也称为“中性利率”，这有助于美联储了解其货币政策实际的限制程度。

Odaily星球日报讯 一些美联储观察人士预计鲍威尔不会对 9 月做出具体预测，而是提醒大家，美联储现在将更加关注就业问题，因为就业市场正在走弱。美联储肩负着维护价格稳定和充分就业的双重使命。随着失业率上升，后者变得越来越重要，并给美联储施加了更大的行动压力。7 月，美国失业率升至 4.3%，这是自 2021 年 10 月以来的最高水平。威明顿信托债券投资组合经理 Luke Tilley 预计鲍威尔将讨论自然利率，该指标也称为“中性利率”，这有助于美联储了解其货币政策实际的限制程度。

美联储观察人士预计鲍威尔不会对9月做出具体预测

Some Federal Reserve observers expect Powell will not make specific predictions for September, but will instead remind everyone that the Federal Reserve is now focusing more on employment issues, as the job market is weakening. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maintain price stability and full employment. With the rise in the unemployment rate, the latter has become increasingly important and has put greater pressure on the Federal Reserve to take action. In July, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021. Wilmington Trust bond portfolio manager Luke Tilley expects Powell will discuss the natural rate of interest, also known as the "neutral rate," which helps the Federal Reserve understand the actual constraints on its monetary policy.

Odaily Odaily News: Some Fed watchers expect Powell not to make specific forecasts for September, but to remind everyone that the Fed will now pay more attention to employment issues because the job market is weakening. The Fed has a dual mission of maintaining price stability and full employment. As unemployment rises, the latter becomes more important and puts more pressure on the Fed to act. In July, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021. Luke Tilley, bond portfolio manager at Wilmington Trust, expects Powell to discuss the natural interest rate, also known as the &quot;neutral interest rate,&quot; which helps the Fed understand the actual degree of restraint of its monetary policy.

Fed watchers don't expect Powell to make specific September forecasts

From August 22 to 24, central bank governors and economists from around the world will gather for the annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on August 23 (10:00 PM Beijing time on Friday).

This week, global markets waited with bated breath for Powell's speech

Odaily reports that Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in several consecutive meetings. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will outline the Fed's medium-term strategy, particularly that the persistent anti-inflation stance means the Fed can focus on maintaining economic expansion. Powell may point out that even after the rate cuts, policy will still be tight.

Morgan Stanley: Fed Chairman Powell may point out that policy will remain tight even if interest rates are cut

According to a Reuters survey, 55 out of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points this year (50 basis points expected in July), and the surveyed economists expect the average economic growth rate in the United States to be 2.5% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025. (Gold Ten)