Before Powell's speech, judging from the current market trend, the overall market trend will be in the range of 59500-61500, ether will fluctuate in the range of 2570-2680, sol will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, and will be in the range of 140-146 as a whole. Now the overall market trend is general, various sectors in the financial field, especially the dog dealers are also waiting for Powell's speech tonight.
Yesterday, Binance Contract will launch ALPACA 1-75x USDT perpetual contract. Recently, Binance has been making markets through contracts, and the market has begun to look for investment targets with low market value and unlisted contracts, such as data, etc., which have all seen significant increases.
Bitcoin is still fluctuating around 60,000, but it doesn’t matter anymore. The market has been playing in its own way. Various copycats have begun to rise generally. Although the increase is not large, it is already building momentum.
How long will it take for BTC to reach a new high?
In terms of time: BTC started to adjust after reaching a new historical high around March 14, which has been more than 5 months, or the first half of the year.
Looking at the two major bear markets, the decline began in December 2017 and bottomed out in December 2018, a full year of decline. From November 2021 to November 2022, it also fell for a full year.
Even if it is a bear market, the market has already fallen by half, so what is there to be afraid of? Moreover, judging from the linkage of US stocks and the inherent cycle of Bitcoin, we are still in a bull market.
From March 14 to August 5, the adjustment lasted for 5 months, which is not a short time. It can be clearly judged that this wave of adjustment has bottomed out on August 5 and will not continue to fall.
From 73w to 49w, it has dropped by more than 30%, and there is enough room for further decline.
Although the adjustment has been made, the plunge on August 5 led to a divergence between bulls and bears, and the bullish force could not gather quickly, resulting in a basic balance between bulls and bears in the short term.
However, there is still almost continuous positive inflow of funds every working day, and the US stock market is still breaking upward. This balance will soon be broken and the bulls will still dominate.
The Fed has basically confirmed that it will cut interest rates, the only question is how much. As the rate cut meeting approaches, the market will really move to a new high in the next four weeks before the rate cut.
I think this kind of big positive news is usually just speculation. After the actual rate cut is implemented, uncertainty will increase.
Current judgment on the current market situation:
1. This is a carnival of partial copycats driven by Binance: from the contract play of rare, sys, syn, voxel, sun, and alpaca (making money through contracts to cover the cost of spot trading) to the general rise of Binance tokens that started yesterday (the reason was the launch of the four.meme platform, and today the prices of cream, bsw, chess, burger, cake, etc. have soared). 2. The purpose of Binance drive:
1. It is to enhance the liquidity of the market, and the effect has indeed been achieved. We can see that the trading volume of copycats has shown a steady upward trend in recent days.
2. It is to make money by being a banker. Needless to say, it is definitely profitable. 3. Is the copycat season coming? Has the market ushered in a change? From the changes in trading volume and market value, we can see that the impact on the market is relatively weak. I think the copycat season should start from September to October after the interest rate cut.
Powell's speech tonight will have as much impact on the market as the last FOM meeting. The market has too high expectations for this speech, and is betting on whether the interest rate will be cut in September. If there are ambiguous or hawkish remarks again tonight, it will further undermine the confidence of buyers.
There are only two possible outcomes:
1. If the interest rate is cut in September, whether it is 25% or 50%, buying confidence can be restored, the market will start to speculate on expectations, and the bullish trend will continue until the day the interest rate cut is implemented.
2. If there is no interest rate cut in September, we will face a three-month hellish market situation. Referring to the trend of the next monthly line, I think we can prepare to wait for the BTC near the middle line of the monthly line.
There will definitely be a large fluctuation around 10 o'clock tonight, or a heaven and earth needle. Now, for the orders in hand, whether long or short, the stop loss should be set. The rest is to wait patiently for tonight's meeting.
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