Odaily星球日报讯 美国银行经济学家在一份关于鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔会议发表讲话的报告中表示，美联储对美国劳动力市场降温的关注仍要求 9 月份降息 25 个基点，而不是 50 个基点。美银表示，尽管鲍威尔的语气较为鸽派，但“我们不认为他为降息 50 个基点打开了更多的大门。”“相反，他含蓄地支持逐步削减利率。”如果经济衰退的风险上升，更大幅度的削减将会发生。“一份非常疲弱的就业报告可能会让我们实现这一目标，但申请失业救济人数的下降表明，这不应该是基本情况。”（金十）

美银：鲍威尔发言并未给降息50个基点背书

Odaily Odaily News: Bank of America economists said in a report on Powell&#39;s speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday that the Federal Reserve&#39;s focus on the cooling of the U.S. labor market still requires a 25 basis point rate cut in September, rather than a 50 basis point cut. Bank of America said that despite Powell&#39;s more dovish tone, &quot;we don&#39;t think he opened the door to more 50 basis point rate cuts.&quot; &quot;Rather, he implicitly supports gradual rate cuts.&quot; If the risk of a recession rises, larger cuts will occur. &quot;A very weak employment report may allow us to achieve this goal, but the decline in unemployment claims suggests that this should not be the base case.&quot; (Jinshi)

Bank of America: Powell's speech did not endorse a 50 basis point rate cut

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analysts say that the minutes of the FOMC's July meeting were too dovish, clearly indicating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which is the most information Powell could reveal in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. This will make traders (overly) optimistic that there will be four rate cuts by the end of the year, while the Federal Reserve may only cut rates two to three times. We can see that the swap market is pricing in about 95 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before December, implying that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at each of the three remaining meetings this year, and implying that one of those cuts will be a significant cut. However, if you pay attention to the discussions of Federal Reserve officials, you will find that this is an extremely optimistic view. The Federal Reserve is more likely to skip the November meeting to reach a consensus on the rate cut, so the final rate cut this year may only be 50 basis points. (Gold Ten)

The market is overly optimistic about pricing in rate cuts, and this year may end up with only a 50 basis point cut

Tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech is closely watched as market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy continue to grow.

Big news! The Fed Chairman is about to speak

On Friday, August 23rd, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell "dovish" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, saying that it is time to adjust the policy, not seeking or welcoming further cooling of the job market, and my confidence in inflation falling to 2% has increased, solidifying the market's expectation that Powell will deliver a "dovish" speech.