China Merchants Securities comments on Powell's speech: There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September

Odaily Odaily News: China Merchants Securities commented on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Powell's speech implied that "the economy has normalized", and then the monetary policy needs to be "normalized". 1. Supply constraints have been normalized, and confidence in inflation has increased significantly; 2. Employment is no longer "overheated", and the risk of employment deterioration is emphasized; 3. After the July FOMC, the risk of reconfirming the dual mission has changed: the upward risk of inflation has weakened, and the downward risk of employment has increased. There is little suspense about the interest rate cut in September, and subsequent interest rate cuts may continue to follow until the US economy shows significant downward pressure. Looking to next year, the election results will have a greater impact on the pace of interest rate cuts. If Harris comes to power, we may see more continuous interest rate cuts in the short term; but if Trump is elected, under the influence of increased tariffs, the Federal Reserve may have a wait-and-see attitude towards inflation. Maintain the judgment on various assets: US stock volatility intensified before the election, bullish on US bonds, and non-US currencies remain relatively strong relative to the US dollar. US stock volatility may intensify before the election, and it is not ruled out that it will rebound again before the election, but the rebound may still be a window for profit-taking. (Jinshi)