After U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the Jackson Hole Economic Forum last Friday that the time was ripe for a rate cut, the crypto market immediately ushered in a new wave of gains. Bitcoin prices have climbed from a low of $60,691 before Ball's speech, and continued to fluctuate around $64,000 over the two days over the weekend.
Early this morning, Bitcoin once hit $65,000, but then faced selling pressure and was trading at $64,092 at the time of writing. The market is currently paying close attention to whether prices can stabilize and whether this wave of gains can be sustained?
10x Research: Accurate forecasting of general economic performance is the key to the current market
Against this background, the cryptocurrency analysis agency 10X Research released a latest report stating that we are currently in a dynamic, hit-and-run market environment, and fast, strategic transactions (short-term operations) can bring significant benefits. The agency stated:
At this stage, as long as Bitcoin continues to trade sideways within a broad range, accurately predicting general economic events will be critical to seizing opportunities.
10X Research predicts that Bitcoin will trade in a range between $56,000 and $70,000 in the next week, saying that this week is a critical week that will determine the direction of Bitcoin at the end of the year.
10X Research further pointed out that the market’s attention is turning to NVIDIA’s upcoming financial report and its future performance guidance. The options market expects that this earnings report may trigger a stock price fluctuation of about 8%, which is similar to the fluctuations after NVIDIA announced its last earnings report.
Important calendar for this week
Earlier, 10x Research also announced important events this week:
- Tuesday, August 27
- The United States releases money supply (M2) data.
- Wednesday, August 28:
- NVIDIA earnings release. Options trading suggests the stock price could move +/-8% post-earnings. Shares rose 9% since the last earnings release
- STX – Stack's Nakamoto upgrade enabled.
- Thursday, August 29
- The revised GDP value of the United States in the second quarter (expected 2.8%, previous value 2.8%).
- Friday, August 30th:
- GS – GammaSwap LBP activity;
- OP – $50M Unlocked;
- U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) and U.S. consumer confidence index are released.
- Next Monday, September 1st:
- SUI – $62 million unlocked. $2.1 billion in tokens are expected to be unlocked in September (a slight improvement from $2.3 billion in August, but $3.2 billion is expected in October).
Trader: BTC may fall below $62,000
However, trader CrypNuevo has a different view on this. He believes that this week’s market will not fluctuate due to general economic news, but will be more affected by the 15-minute shadow line (wick, the extreme range of price fluctuations), price action patterns ( PA patterns) and other technical factors.
CrypNuevo believes that judging from the order book liquidity, these orders may be a combination of stop-loss orders set above the price swing high and some sell limit orders.
From the perspective of liquidation analysis, CrypNuevo further pointed out that "Delta liquidation" is currently approaching a higher-risk level, which may lead to a "long squeeze" (long squeeze), that is, the price drops to liquidate long positions. Currently, Bitcoin has a lot of liquidations near $63,500 (1h50EMA) and $62,200.
CrypNuevo predicts that Bitcoin price action will be divided into two parts:
- Part One: They believe that the price of Bitcoin may rise first, with the goal of filling the position of the previous shadow line. They divide this portion of the forecast into two entry points. (Because this was last night’s analysis, in hindsight this part is in line with CrypNuevo’s expectations)
- Part 2: After the price rises, a "Bart Simpson pattern" may appear. This is a pattern in which the price rises rapidly, forms a head, and then falls rapidly. Such a pattern will fill the shadows, stop short positions, and lure some breakout traders into the trade.
The price then fell, triggering a forced liquidation (i.e. long squeeze) by long traders, which pushed the price further down until it hit support at the 1-day or 4-hour 50EMAs, currently at $61,390 and $61,881 respectively.
