Bitcoin's September sell-off has already begun.
After Labor Day, U.S. stocks suffered a decline, especially Nvidia, which closed down nearly 10%, setting a record for the largest single-day drop. Other technology stocks also generally fell.
Bitcoin has recently diverged from the trend of U.S. stocks and has failed to rise with them.
Currently, the main support level of Bitcoin is $55,500. If it falls below, it may approach $52,000. There is strong support in the $50,000 to $52,000 range, but the cautious sentiment in September remains. Recently, spot ETFs have shown selling pressure, with nearly 4,800 bitcoins flowing out.
If BlackRock also sees outflows, it could suggest that the downtrend will continue. Bitcoin needs to return to $59,000 as soon as possible, which is the purchase cost line of the spot ETF and the average purchase cost line in 2024.
Crypto market falls, US stocks evaporate more than $1 trillion in one day. Are you scared or indifferent now?
There is another reason for the decline today: 9.4 Blockchain Anniversary!
Seven years ago today, on September 4, 2017, China announced a ban on ICOs, causing the market value of the crypto to evaporate by 80%. At that time, exchanges such as Binance, OKEx and Huobi also went overseas. Today's market crash reminds people of that bloody historical moment.
The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.04 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 56.4% of the market share.
U.S. stocks and gold both showed a downward trend. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell 2.12%, 1.51% and 3.26% respectively.
September is historically a tough month for financial markets as traders watch for Federal Reserve rate cuts and key data points while also counting down to the U.S. presidential election in November.
The latest economic data from the United States has once again raised concerns about recession. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed that the US economy continued to shrink, with the actual value of 47.2, lower than the expected 47.5 and 46.8 in July, new orders fell to 44.6, and prices paid rose to 54.0.
Affected by this, FedWatch data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed that traders raised their expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September from 30% to 39%, but expectations for a 25 basis point cut still dominated at 61%.
The key macro data will be the August jobs report due on Friday, with economists forecasting an increase in payrolls to 160,000 from 114,000 in July and the unemployment rate expected to fall to 4.2%.
Chief technical strategist Larry Tentarelli pointed out that the market is extremely sensitive to data at the moment.
The coming week is packed with economic data and market volatility is expected to increase. Here are the key events and their potential impact on Bitcoin:
In the long term, the outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. In the past, hash price lows have usually coincided with Bitcoin price lows and signaled the formation of local market bottoms.
The low hash price segments marked by the purple box coincide with the lows in Bitcoin prices, indicating that this phenomenon reflects a long-term trend rather than short-term price fluctuations. Although the low hash price is an important signal of the market bottoming out, similar to the situation in 2020, it suggests that the market is close to the bottom, but it will take time to verify.
That’s all for today’s article. We are currently in a bull market, and things are turbulent. We share passwords every day.
