According to Bernstein’s latest report, he predicted that the U.S. presidential election may have an extreme price impact on Bitcoin. In addition, many analysts have pointed out that the current market is extremely lacking in catalysts, and they seem to have pinned their hopes on the market's performance in the fourth quarter.
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ToggleTrump wins the election: Bitcoin will be worth 90,000 by the end of the year
Bernstein predicts that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin will hit a record high by the end of the year and may even reach $90,000 in the fourth quarter.
The report pointed out that this is because Trump has emphasized that he will build the United States into the "Capital of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency." He has mentioned digital assets in many policy speeches, hoping that the United States will become a major country in Bitcoin mining, and called for the appointment of officials. Crypto-friendly Chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission, this series of measures could bring significant benefits to the crypto industry.
Harris Harris wins: Bitcoin drops to 30,000
In contrast, Bernstein believes that if Harris wins the election, Bitcoin may not only fall below 50,000, but even test the range of US$30,000 to US$40,000. It emphasized that He Jinli never mentioned cryptocurrency in her speech, which may mean that the government will take a conservative stance on encryption policy in the future, which may have a negative impact on the market.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said:
The crypto market has faced both macroeconomic and regulatory dilemmas over the past three years. As regulatory pressure gradually eases, positive encryption regulatory policies will help promote new innovation and attract users. The outcome of the election is difficult to predict, but if you are long now, you are probably betting on a Trump victory.
Market lacks short-term catalysts
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 at the end of August and showed no improvement in September, which seems to confirm the historical data of generally poor performance in September.
Bitcoin infrastructure developer NYDIG also issued an article stating:
There are few potential near-term catalysts for Bitcoin. As others have mentioned, August, September have proven to be weak months for Bitcoin prices. But the good news is that October and the fourth quarter are generally beneficial to price trends, and there are still a few weeks until the fourth quarter. Bitcoin bulls can only actively look for catalysts, including macro news such as employment, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. .
Matrixport shares a similar view. His tweet mentioned that the Bitcoin Greed and Fear Index once again hit the "extreme panic" level, but historical data shows that Bitcoin usually rebounds in this situation. Potential catalysts may include the upcoming debate between Harris and Trump, and the United States Wednesday's CPI report.
#Matrixport Today 📈 – Sep 9: #Bitcoin Hits 'Peak Fear' as Key Catalysts Loom #Crypto #cryptomarket #MarketTrends #BTC #CPI #investing pic.twitter.com/7JW1FbALhm
— Matrixport Official English (the only official X) (@Matrixport_EN) September 9, 2024
