The employment data released by the United States last week was lower than market expectations, which increased the concerns about the US economic recession. The Federal Reserve Board made it clear on Saturday that the time has come to cut interest rates and that it would consider further raising interest rates. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 2 basis points in September once surged to more than 50%. Although interest rate cuts are usually good for risk markets, Bitcoin fell instead of rising due to the decline in US stocks and concerns about economic recession.
Last Friday's non-farm payrolls report laid the foundation for the Federal Reserve to start a rate cut cycle at the FOMC meeting on September 18. However, if a one-time 50 basis point rate cut is implemented, it is likely to indicate the central bank's concerns about the economic outlook, highlighting the urgency of the agency to control the economic situation, triggering risk aversion in the financial market, and thus creating downward pressure on risky assets including Bitcoin and stocks.
In terms of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin continued to rebound on Monday after a sluggish weekend, and began to fluctuate higher around $55,000 after 11 o'clock last night. It hit a high of $58,135 at around 5 o'clock this morning, but selling pressure emerged afterwards. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $57,186, and the increase in the past 24 hours narrowed to 3.45%.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the price is near the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and has previously broken through the upper track, showing an overbought signal. When the price approaches the upper track of the Bollinger Band and continues to move forward, the pressure of a short-term correction may appear. However, if the price can continue to run stably near the upper track, then this may also imply that the subsequent upward momentum will continue.
Subsequently, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the K-line value and the D-line value are in the overbought zone, and the J-line value has begun to turn downward. When the KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone and the J-line value turns downward, it may indicate that there will be a callback in the short term. However, if the KDJ line can form a golden cross again at a higher position, it may still continue to rebound.
Secondly, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are close to and intentionally form a death cross state, which means that the price may be at risk of a correction. The MACD red bar chart is gradually shortening, which also verifies the view that the price is about to pull back.
Finally, according to the RSI indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the RSI value is 72.48, which indicates that the market has entered the overbought area. RSI approaching the overbought area usually means that the market may see a correction or pullback in the short term. If the RSI can continue to run at a high level, then it may mean that the upward trend is still strong.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the price of Bitcoin has touched the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and then there has been a certain degree of correction. The upper and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band are currently expanding outward, which indicates that market volatility has increased. From the current trend, the price of Bitcoin has slightly adjusted near the upper track of the Bollinger Band. If the price can pull back to the middle track of the Bollinger Band and get support, then this may provide momentum for the subsequent continued upward movement. However, if the price falls below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, it may trigger a greater downside risk and may further bottom out to the lower track.
Subsequently, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the K-line value and the D-line value are at a high position, while the J-line value has begun to fall from a high position, indicating that the overbought state has begun to show signs of falling. In the short term, the price of Bitcoin may face a correction. If the KDJ three-line value crosses downward to form a death cross, the possibility of a short-term correction will increase.
Secondly, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are running almost in parallel, indicating that the upward momentum is gradually weakening. The MACD red bar chart is also continuously shortening, which also verifies the view that the upward momentum is weakening. If the MACD bar chart turns from red to green, then the price will pull back in the short term.
Finally, according to the RSI indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the RSI value is 62.8, which is in a strong area but has not entered the overbought area, indicating that the market buying power is still strong and Bitcoin still has room to rise in the short term, but if the RSI value continues to rise and enter the overbought area, then we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback.
Comprehensive analysis shows that Bitcoin currently sends out multiple overbought signals, KDJ and RSI indexes are both running in the overbought zone, MACD is about to have a death cross, and there is a risk of price correction in the short term. However, if the Bollinger Bands maintain the upper track and the indicators do not fall significantly, it is expected to continue to rise.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
Bitcoin rebounds to around 57800, short, target 56500-56200, defense 58300.
Writing time: (2024-09-10, 19:25)
(Text-Daxian Talks about Coins)
