Odaily星球日报讯 花旗预测美联储 9 月份降息 25 个基点，11 月和 12 月分别降息 50 个基点。（金十）

花旗：美联储或于11月和12月分别降息50个基点

Odaily Odaily News Citigroup predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and 50 basis points in November and December respectively. (Jinshi)

Citigroup: The Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November and December

Traders in the US interest rate options market are still betting that the Federal Reserve will make at least one massive rate cut this year, although it may not happen before the US presidential election on November 5. Recent options activity related to the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) indicates that traders are increasingly positioning for the Fed to cut rates by around 150 basis points before its January 29 policy decision. This is in line with the current swap market situation. To achieve this, policymakers would need to implement at least half a percentage point cuts in two of the four meetings before January, without making any inter-meeting cuts.

Traders still expect the Fed to make at least two big rate cuts in the near future

According to Odaily, Chris Larkin of Morgan Stanley E*Trade stated that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and today's CPI data is more or less in line with the target, consistent with the expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Investors hoping for a larger rate cut may be disappointed, but as inflation appears to be under control, the market may shift its attention to economic growth, particularly the employment situation.

Morgan Stanley: CPI data has met expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut

According to Odaily, Nicholas Colas, the co-founder of DataTrek, believes that the Federal Reserve is far behind the curve in terms of cutting interest rates, but he does not believe this will necessarily lead to an economic recession. He said that a recession requires a catalyst to trigger it, and so far nothing has happened in the United States that could trigger such a severe economic slowdown. Powell and other senior officials have hinted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic later this month.