Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering near $58,000, and the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is about 40, which is still at a moderate level. The market is waiting to see if Bitcoin can return to a violent bull market after the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision next week?
Willy Woo: Bitcoin appears to be showing signs of reversal
Willy Woo, a well-known analyst in the cryptocurrency community, tweeted that since the halving of Bitcoin in April, both demand and supply have shown a bearish trend, but signs of reversal may have begun to appear in the past four weeks (still unconfirmed), but it may It will take more time to break above all-time highs.
He also pointed out that from a macro perspective, Bitcoin has not yet entered a bear market and is currently in a re-accumulation mode:
Bond rates are falling, which could be a warning to avoid a potential crash.
Past examples include the 2020 COVID-19 crash and the 2008 global financial crisis. This type of situation typically causes all assets to collapse before rebounding from a longer-term liquidity push (such as printing lots of money).
Bitcoin exchange reserves drop
CryptoQuant’s on-chain analyst OnchainTarek also wrote in “ Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run? ” pointed out in the article:
The decrease in Bitcoin reserves and the increase in stablecoin reserves show that Bitcoin has a promising future. As supply tightens in the market and purchasing power increases, we may be on the verge of rising prices.
1. Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Decline <br>Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have been significantly decreasing, a trend that usually precedes price increases. This means that investors are moving Bitcoin to cold storage, limiting the supply available in the market, thereby reducing selling pressure.
Historical data shows that this phenomenon often heralds price peaks, and something similar may be happening now.
2. Stablecoin reserves increase <br>At the same time, the amount of stablecoin reserves in exchanges is also growing, indicating that investors are ready to enter the market to buy. Stablecoins represent readily deployable funds, and their increase shows investors are waiting for the right time to enter the market, indicating strong buying intentions.
3. Bullish Market Setup <br>Dwindling Bitcoin reserves and increasing stablecoin reserves set the stage for a potential price breakout. As the supply of Bitcoin decreases and purchasing power increases, the market is ready for a price increase. Historically, supply and demand imbalances have often resulted in significant price increases.
4. Conclusion <br>The decrease in Bitcoin reserves and the increase in stablecoin reserves indicate a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. As supply tightens in the market and purchasing power improves, we may be on the verge of rising prices, and investors should keep an eye out for potential market breakouts in the coming weeks.
Beware of Bitcoin’s September Fall Curse
As for Bitcoin, is now a good time to enter the market? According to Bitcoin's monthly returns, it can be found that in the past 11 years (2013 to 2023), Bitcoin has generally performed poorly in September, with 8 declines and a probability of decline as high as 73%.
In addition, judging from the average monthly return, September is also the month with the largest decline, with a decline of up to 4.78%; however, October usually rises, so if you are an investor without leverage, you may consider September. Low cover.
In addition to overall economic risks, according to Arkham Intelligence data , although Mt. Gox has repaid most of its Bitcoins, its wallet still holds more than 40,000 BTCs, and continued repayments may still pose risks to the price.
In addition, the U.S. government transferred nearly $600 million in Silk Road-related Bitcoins in mid-August. It is currently unclear whether it was for custody or in preparation for sale, which is also a detail worthy of attention.
