A quick overview of important events this week (9/9-9/13)
- The CPI , PPI and unemployment data released this week are basically within the expected range, and Bitcoin continues to fluctuate between US$55,000 and US$58,000. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may not make a direction until the results of the FOMC meeting next week are announced.
- The U.S. Congress held its first hearing on decentralized finance (DeFi) on the 10th. The Republicans shouted for changes in finance, while the Democrats criticized helping the rich to evade taxes. They had different opinions.
- After former U.S. President Trump held his first televised debate with Kamala Harris on the 11th, the outside world generally expected the latter to perform better, and Trump-related concept stocks and meme coins fell . However, Standard Chartered Bank believes that no matter who is elected in the future, it will not hinder the rise of BTC, and Bitcoin will reach a new high by the end of the year.
- This week, many celebrities claimed that Ke Wenzhe may have accepted 15 million yuan in cryptocurrency bribes from Shen Qingjing, chairman of Weijin Group. However, they are basically at an unverifiable stage, and their understanding of blockchain is also problematic. Readers are advised to think carefully.
- OpenAI launches a new reasoning model " OpenAI o1 ". Officially, it says that just like humans, it will improve its thinking process, try different strategies, and recognize its own mistakes.
- Apple released a newly designed iPhone 16 series, but senior commentators said the lack of innovation was worrying.
Changes in trading market data this week
Sentiments and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week's market sentiment indicator rose from 25.88 (fear) to 46.2 (neutral) at mid-week and then dropped to 37 (fear). Although market sentiment once tried to return to the neutral range, it failed to last and remained in the "fear zone".
2. Funding rate heat map
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trend of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies. The color ranges from green with zero rate to yellow with 50% positive rate. Black represents negative rate; the white K-line chart shows the price fluctuation of Bitcoin. , in contrast to the funding rate.
This week's Bitcoin funding rate shows that in every 8-hour settlement period, more than half of 12 of the 21 times have negative value, reflecting the strong short power in the market.
3. Section
According to artemis data, the average increase in the blockchain sector this week was 9.8%, with AI, Bridge, and RWA occupying the top three with 16.4%, 15.2%, and 13.4% respectively.
The three worst-performing blockchain areas are DePIN (-0.8%), centralized exchanges (2.0%), and DeFi (2.0%).
market liquidity
1. The total market value of cryptocurrency returned to the US$2 trillion mark this week, and the total supply of stablecoins gradually entered the market.
This week’s total cryptocurrency market capitalization data shows that it rose from US$1.99 trillion last week to US$2.04 trillion, an increase of US$50 billion, and the total market capitalization increased by approximately 2.51%; the total stablecoin supply serves as an important indicator of market health and liquidity , this week increased from US$157.7 billion to US$158.2 billion, an increase of US$500 million, an increase of approximately 0.317%.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow of funds
Bitcoin ETF funds outflowed US$29.3 million this week, showing a clear trend of capital outflows.
2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin is in the "Consider Buying" range ($58,000) and is close to the "Special Sale" stage ($51,000). This may be a potential buying opportunity. The market still believes that Bitcoin Coin is undervalued.
3. Miners invest in equipment and computing power breaks new highs
Despite market fluctuations, miners continue to increase equipment investment. This week’s Bitcoin computing power data showed that it broke through a new high (14D-MA) and reached 666.48 EH/s.
4. Bitcoin miners’ additional income has dropped significantly
On the other hand, according to Glassnode data, since Bitcoin’s market price reached a new peak in March, miners’ income has been significantly reduced. In addition to the price decline, the decline in transaction fees is also another reason.
This year, Bitcoin miners’ additional transaction fees accounted for 22.35% of their income (purple line). In early January, the proportion was 22.35% due to the booming inscription market. In mid-May, it accounted for 21.7% due to runes. Now, the proportion has dropped to 2.35% in mid-September. %, if the currency price fails to grow, the pressure on miners may intensify.
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders continue to increase
According to on-chain data , the net position of long-term holders (LTH) has continued to increase over the past seven days, showing that the market’s long-term confidence in Bitcoin has not been broken.
Starting from the end of July, the net position of long-term holders has obviously turned from negative to positive. Especially from mid-August to September, the increase gradually expanded, showing that long-term holders are continuously accumulating Bitcoin positions.
Important technical indicators of Ethereum
1. Ethereum ETF market performance is poor
The recent poor performance of the Ethereum ETF market, with grayscale ETHE product redemptions leading to a total outflow of $13.1 million, highlights the difference in demand between BTC and ETH.
2. Bitcoin rises, and other currencies generally rise.
Data this week shows that the price correlation between Bitcoin and Solana reached 0.96, and the correlation with Binance Coin and Ethereum were 0.92 and 0.93 respectively, reflecting the close linkage between these mainstream currencies and Bitcoin.
Market analysis news this week
1. The longest U.S. bond yield inversion in history has ended. Can we escape the fate of economic recession this time?
The inversion of U.S. bond yields began in July 2022 and lasted for more than 2 years, setting a record for the longest period in history. This week, the yield rate finally officially lifted its inversion, but the market is beginning to worry. According to historical experience, there is a high probability of an economic recession. Will history repeat itself this time? ( continue reading )
2. Bitcoin may plummet if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 2 cents! 10x Research: BTC rebound indicator has recovered from oversold
10x Research reported on Monday that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, it may put downward pressure on risky assets including Bitcoin and stocks. ( continue reading )
3. The Battle to Defend Bitcoin’s $58,000” U.S. PPI and unemployment data for August are released, and the chance of the Fed dropping 1 yard next week rises
The US PPI data for August was released, showing that US inflation remains under control. US stocks responded relatively positively, with the three major indexes rising. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at US$58,000 and continue to rise has become a short-term target of concern. ( continue reading )
4. Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline and stablecoins increase. Is it time for BTC to enter the market?
The Bitcoin market sentiment has been slightly cold recently. Despite this, two analysts believe that Bitcoin has not entered a bear market; the other believes that Bitcoin’s bullish prospects need to be paid attention to in the next few weeks. ( continue reading )
Cryptocurrency regulatory status in various countries
1. SEC warns again about high speculation in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: These six major risks cannot be ignored
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Office of Investor Education and Advocacy (SEC) once again warned on the 9th that Bitcoin and Ethereum are highly speculative investment options and six potential risks should be considered. ( continue reading )
2. The VASP Virtual Currency Association will be fined 500,000 yuan for violating the "Self-Discipline Standards"! It is expected to be released at the end of September. Let’s take a look at the 4 major points at once.
The Taiwan Virtual Currency Association's self-regulatory regulations are expected to be released at the end of September and officially go into effect in the fourth quarter. They include four major priorities: preventing money laundering, combating fraud, consumer protection, and strengthening the industry's own management, in order to comply with the Financial Supervisory Commission's requirements for preventing fraud, combating fraud, and strengthening industry management. Anti-money laundering and consumer protection requirements. ( continue reading )
3. The first DeFi hearing in the history of the U.S. Congress》Republicans shouted to change finance, while Democrats criticized helping the rich to evade taxes
The U.S. Congress held a hearing on decentralized finance (DeFi) for the first time on the 10th. However, Republican and Democratic congressmen clearly had different positions on DeFi. Five expert witnesses who attended the hearing also expressed their support and opposition to DeFi. view. ( continue reading )
4. The new British law plans to include cryptocurrency and NFT as "personal property": providing more flexible legal protection
The UK’s proposed Property Bill intends to treat cryptocurrencies, NFTs and carbon credits as personal property under UK law, aiming to provide a clear legal basis for complex property cases. ( continue reading )
5.87% of crypto business registrations were rejected! The British Monetary Authority strengthens virtual currency supervision and 450 companies receive warning letters
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said that over the past year, more than 87% of cryptocurrency company registration applications in the UK have been rejected in an effort to strengthen consumer protection and combat financial crime related to cryptocurrency. ( continue reading )
Market focus next week
9/17 (Tue)
- United States: August retail sales, forecast 0.2%, previous value 1.0%
9/18 (Wednesday)
- Eurozone: Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August, forecast 2.2%, previous value 2.6%
9/19 (Thursday)
- United States: FOMC economic forecast, interest rate decision, previous value 5.50%
- Taiwan: Interest rate decision (third quarter), previous value 2.000%
- UK: Interest rate decision (September), last value 5.00%
- United States: Initial Jobless Claims
9/20 (Friday)
- Japan: Interest rate decision, last value 0.25%
Recommended interview videos
1.MaiCoin CEO Alex Liu: Cryptocurrency has made a major breakthrough in Taiwan. A sneak peek at MaiCoin’s future strategy.
( Video link )
2. Vice President of the Legislative Yuan Jiang Qichen: Blockchain and artificial intelligence have great potential in Taiwan (bilingual subtitles)
( Video link ) ( Extended reading )
Top 5 popular articles this week
1. Taiwan’s central bank will announce another housing crackdown in September! Expert: "60% loan limit" for second-home buyers may be extended to Taiwan
Experts from the National Taiwan Institute of Economics pointed out that the central bank will not rule out imposing a seventh wave of credit controls on the housing market at the upcoming Board of Supervisors meeting this month. It is speculated that the originally adopted measure of "setting the upper limit of the second-home loan ratio to 6" will expand the geographical scope of implementation, and even lower the loan ratio, in order to achieve the goal of cooling the housing market. ( continue reading )
Regardless of whether it raises interest rates or deposit reserve ratios, the central bank will continue its tightening pace. Whether it is raising interest rates, raising reserve requirements (increasing bank deposit reserve ratios) or imposing selective credit controls, the central bank will make a difference.
2. Crypto heartbreak, why are more and more people leaving quietly this year?
The craze of cryptocurrency has attracted the clamor of many investors, but these people quietly left the market in 2024. ( continue reading )
Suddenly, you may feel like much of your life's hard work has been in vain. You are dissatisfied with both the current state of cryptocurrencies and the direction they are headed.
3. Ke Wenzhe’s Bitcoin cash flow cannot be found? Experts slap in the face: Exchange KYC must leave traces
Taiwan People's Party Chairman and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wenzhe was detained and barred from seeing him in connection with the Beijing City case. Recent media reports claimed that Ko Wenzhe may have accepted 15 million in bribes from Shen Qingjing, chairman of Weijin Group. Some people also questioned whether he accepted virtual currencies to hide financial flows. However, PTT DarkerDuck, the moderator of the digital currency forum, published an analysis saying that it is extremely difficult to collect bribes using cryptocurrency. (continue reading )
4. The trend of Bitcoin this year is very similar to that of 2019. Analyst: A big reversal may come soon.
The crypto market is gloomy, but Julien Bittel, director of macro research at Global Macro Investor, analyzed that the trend of Bitcoin this year is almost the same as that in 2019. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin will rebound from the bottom and may break through US$80,000 by the end of the year. ( continue reading )
Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted for 175 days (so far). We are now approaching a critical point with the potential for major developments, and next week will be a very interesting one to watch.
5. Should I buy iPhone 16? Foreign media commented that Apple Intelligence is "extremely shocking" and Chinese support will have to wait until 2025
Apple releases iPhone 16 series and Apple Intelligence, bringing new A18 chip. Is it worth buying? However, foreign media pointed out that the preview version of AI is very imperfect and will make up stories like ChatGPT, which may delay Apple's launch of this feature. ( continue reading )
