In short , ZK Rollup is still a long way from mass adoption. The red market is the ultimate test of the protocol and can reveal the true user distribution. This is my in-depth study of the state of Ethereum L2, with rich visuals and on-chain data analysis.
Since 2023, Ethereum L2 has risen rapidly, and @l2beat currently tracks 74 L2 and 30 L3 information.
However, only a few general-purpose rollups have gained widespread attention and attracted a large number of TVLs and users. This study focuses on nine of the largest rollups.
Market capitalization: float market capitalization and fully diluted market capitalization
Currently, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of most L2s reaches billions of dollars, but their circulating market capitalization is less than $1 billion, indicating that most Tokens have not yet entered market circulation.
The only exception is @0xMantle , with 52% of its supply already unlocked, making it the only L2 with a circulating market cap of over $1 billion.
High FDV and low circulation are one of the main reasons why many recent airdrops have failed to meet user expectations.
Assessing current valuations is challenging, and there is uncertainty about possible future downward trends.
Total Locked Value (TVL)
In terms of TVL, except for chains with ongoing incentive programs like @Scroll_ZKP , @LineaBuild and @0xMantle , all chains have experienced a difficult summer.
However, compared with Scroll’s new plan, Linea’s airdrop plan, which has lasted for nearly a year, has received less attention in the community.
Among the underperforming chains, @zksync and @blast were the most affected, as these two chains issued their tokens this year, causing liquidity to shift to more attractive places.
Fees and transaction activity
Since Dencun, DA no longer significantly drives ETH’s economics, which has had an impact on Ethereum and L2 fees. Therefore, it is particularly important to analyze fee dynamics and transaction activity.
In this regard, @base is regarded as the main destination for new memecoin launches on Ethereum L2, showing strong traction and transaction volume continuing to grow, driven by speculation.
In contrast, @zksync and @LineaBuild have performed less well despite @LineaBuild's ongoing incentive plan.
Monthly active users (MAU)
Changes in MAU, an important indicator for evaluating chain user retention, show a similar trend.
@0xMantle and @base performed well, while @StarknetFndn , @zksync and @blast performed poorly.
By comparing the MAU data to the fully diluted valuation (FDV), it's clear that Starknet is significantly overvalued compared to Arbitrum, Optimism, and even ZKsync.
Bridging inflow and outflow
Bridging net flow is an important metric for measuring new users and capital inflows.
In L2, the ones with positive net traffic include @Arbitrum , @StarknetFndn , @Optimism , @base and @0xMantle , among which @0xMantle has the largest gap between inflow and outflow.
In contrast, @LineaBuild , @zksync , and @blast exhibit negative net traffic.
Developer events
Finally, developer activity is measured by core development projects and code commits. This information helps assess the team's current productivity and identify any reductions in headcount.
The most surprising one is @blast , which currently has over 300 core developers (compared to the 30-50 that most L2s usually have). This large team also contributes a large number of code commits.
What exactly are they doing? This is unknown.
If you want to learn more about the impact of airdrop activities on various indicators of Ethereum L2, you can check out my article " The State of Ethereum Rollups " on Substack.
This article summarizes the conclusions of my research and expresses my personal views on the power distribution of Ethereum Rollup.
In short: ZK Rollup is still a long way from mass adoption (which is a shame).
